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Gold Enters Major Bull Market

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 By Michael Miller

04/03/2018  12:25PM

Why I spend little time guessing, speculating, charting or recording data regarding the historical hydra of the gold spot price market. Some believe it to be an evil. Not I. Some believe it to be great value. Either way pundits or intelligent analysts are celebrating a positive first quarter while others are sending up a warning signal as they see significant risks to the downside because of rising real bond yields. Yawn.

In a report Tuesday, one wrote that the growing divergence between gold prices and rising real interest rates is becoming “increasingly precipitous.” Traditionally, higher real interest rates weigh on gold prices, increasing the precious metal’s opportunity costs as a non-yielding asset. Okay.

Fear over global trade negotiations and recent softer than expected economic data have weakened the long end of the U.S. treasury curve, which should be a positive for gold prices. Okay. Historically as the long-end of the U.S. treasury curve declines, relative to European and Japanese yields, the dollar moves lower which paves the way for higher gold bullion and silver bar prices. So what?

Continuing from various reports: yields have been under pressure since pushing up to the 2.95% level, following the Fed’s decision to increase interest rates by 25-basis points following their March monetary policy meeting. Investors appear to be unsure of the Fed’s forecast that yields will accelerate higher in 2019 and 2020. A declining 10-year treasury yield is the markets way of telling the Fed that your forecast for growth and inflation are too rosy. I’ve had enough and will stick to Lee Erdahl’s guidance years ago: “Mike, when asked about the price of gold, I say one thing is for certain. It will go up or go down.”

I like to read about those actual gold producing companies and how the life of a miner is going. I also study patterns of the exploration dreamers and how they present their case for eventual production. I do like to read about the political upheavals where armed guards are required for protecting the miners or when a regime decides to take a bigger chunk of production. The writers that really blow my mind (and have for years) are those predicting $5,000 an ounce or more. My greatest curiosities are the gold bulls and bears that baffle and manipulate the direction of spot towards their financial benefit. At times a gold bull wants to bring the price down for acquisition. A gold bear may favor an increase in order to short the commodity. Nothing new here but the game is much more expensive to play than dealing in cotton, corn or even oil.
 By parkerlarry1

02/02/2018  8:45AM

http://www.goldenjackass.com/main5.html ...Bonds stocks US dollar as unsafe in 2018 (with out silver gold backing MHO). Some reading in Geology/History as follows; 1) Elusive Pocket Gold of Southwest Oregon 2) Detecting for Gold 3) Rocks and Minerals 4)The Forty-Niners 5)The Miners Source is Ebay.com Meanwhile: Get well, get well regulated/makeyourbattlefreedom
 By Michael Miller

02/01/2018  10:03AM

Hello new FORUM writer, parkerlarry. Your entry yesterday is appreciated. Our policy is to retain all entries unless they are grossly offensive. Yours is not at all offensive; however it is a collection of facts or opinions from internet sources and was difficult to read and understand. I’m moving it to Gold Enters Major Bull Market, a topic where Bluejay and others post relevant and personal facts and opinions. What I did this morning, instead of deleting or moving your entry to the Miscellaneous topic, downsized it from 1277 words to 776. Also I edited it to make it readable, unchanging its essence.

I know where you found this information and occasionally scan them. They reflect the current moods of one segment of our mostly ignored interests in gold, gold mining and international economic/currency environment. I’m pleased you have this interest. Much of what is posted on the internet has marginal impact or value in understanding gold mining or the major factors that influence the spot price. There are some interesting observations expressed in your compilation and perhaps others have additional thoughts on these.
For you who is reading this for the first time, instructions suggested: read Edited Version then Original Version or read the original for its content and understanding before reading the shortened edit. This is an unusual and very long entry with some very positive significance.

EDITED VERSION
Spent time 2006 help Jack Martin with gate into deadwood and nosed around in gulches wherein now as a self-taught geologist know they missed a big up there and likely several of them. Meanwhile: Was watching the markets since 5:30 am this morning, Gold coming down from 1345.00 midmorning top at 197 and during the gold 12 noonish run straight down to 1332.X where in the $HUI dropped (index gold stocks) to 192.5. Noted that my investment in silver 3x leveraged was almost unchanged 12.1X $ where as JNUG dropped to Dec 20 lows and then was at 16.33 ...it came back. This little 3x leveraged stock was so heavy invested in 2017 that it needed to be reorganized as ceilings had been hit for outright ownership in the stocks it was buying. It preformed opposite of a gold mine returns as a result of this. It’s opposite 3x bear did quite well as a result but dragged the entire mining stock index down as well as criptomania gripping the speculative masses. Red hot traders formerly here.(day low was 15.1X high was 16.80 that sold off fast). All $HUI came back only to 193.X. The indexes were are down fractionally in negative territory.

Further noted Kitco.com 500 ounce US Walking Liberty coins were briefly at 9,900 for uncirculated mixed dates, Canada maple leaves were at 9450 $ and Australian Kagaroos were available in 250 quantity monster boxes only. Now ran across some items of news thought: Silver will never be money Cripto currencies

How would most people connected to the markets in some significant way/401K feel about being paid in silver plus a 10% fee for payment in a coin what Kitco offers via these govt. minted coins above spot price of silver? Sure at some point past couple hundred lbs. NO THANKS. But how about fractional gold 1/10 oz. @ 1500 and oz. cost or 1 oz. gold at 30 dollars an oz. over spot gold? So US mint has sold 500,000,000 silver ounces so far to the investing public. They are coming out with a silver coin) and silver gold ratio is 78 to 1. Looking at original silver gold 20 1$ in silver = 20 $ in gold 178X thru 1932... 20 to 1. How would you feel about payment in silver at 19$?

This spoofing sell came at the end of the month. Actually the gold price hit $1365, Jan 25 envelope for traders closing out monthly books. Gold and silver usually rally thru April and again in June and possibly one more wave up in August July given normal markets. When have we had any kind of normal market situation?

Gold is attempting to hold the $1350 level. The reversal in the GDX on Thursday also came on trading volume eclipsing that of rally days over the past few weeks, which does not bode well for a continuation of this move for the short-term. If you are not fully invested in the sector, I strongly suggest continuing to buy weakness in the best junior gold & silver developer/explorers and sub $1 billion market cap growth-oriented producers. A collection of micro-cap, early-stage explorer “lottery tickets” is also advised if you do not mind a bit more risk. Judging by the cryptocurrency and pot stock moves lately, I believe the mining space is no longer the riskiest sector in the stock market and has instead become the last deep value alternative left in the marketplace, especially when you consider the fact that the mining space has a combined market cap of roughly one half of 1% percent of the stock market.

To put this into historical perspective, at the peak of the last precious metal bull market in 2011, the miners made up 2% of the stock market. By the end of the fabulous gold bull which ran from 1971 to 1980, gold investments as a percentage of Total Global Financial Assets had reached 5.0%. This means gold investment as a percentage of Global Financial Assets were nearly 9 Times greater in 1980 than it is today. In the event gold investments, as a percentage of Global Financial Assets, again rises to 5.0%. It means $5.25 trillion will flood into gold.

Now is the time when funds hold miners down to cover their shorts, while buying all the shares from retails. When they have all the shares they need that's when rally in miners may start. This week was an exciting week for Gold. One thing for sure happened, that minor train’ definitely left the station. After spending all that time, money, and research making investments, to see them start to preform was satisfying.


ORIGINAL ENTRY

Spent time 2006 help Jack Martin with gate into deadwood and nosed around in gulches wherein now as a self taught geologist know they missed a big up there and likely several of them. Meanwhile:Was watching the markets since 5:30 am this morning, Gold comming down from 1345.00

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html and the Dow up 24X points and other indexes up fractionaly. $HUI was

midmorning top at 197 and during the gold 12 noonish run straight down to 1332.X where in the $HUI dropped (index gold

stocks) to 192.5 noted that my investment in silver 3x leveraged uslv was almost unchanged 12.1X $ where as JNUG dropped to

Dec 20 lows and then was at 16.33 ...it came back...this little 3x levereaged stock was so heavy invested (coupla billion

dollars)in/2017 that it needed to be reorganized as ceilings had been hit for outright owner ship in the stocks it was buying

and it preformed opposit of a gold mine returns as a result of this and its opposite 3x bear JDST did quite the well as a

result but dragged the entire mining stock index down as well as criptomania gripping the speculative masses and red hot

traders formerly here.(day low was 15.1X high was 16.80 that sold off fast) while all the $HUI came back only to 193.X and

the indexes were are down fractionally in negative territory.

Further noted Kitco.coms 500 ounce US Walking Liberty coins were briefly at 9,900 for uncirculated mixed dates, Canada

maple leaves were at 9450 $ and Austrailian Kagaroos were available in 250 quantity monster boxes only. Now ran across some

items of news thought: Silver will never be money Cripto curriences will (all still selling off since the big board has

been suddenly down three days in a row/SDS 2X leveraged short on $SPX 500 up to 36.X$ off 34.X low just 1 day before the

start on high volume unchanged that day) are just the latest trend in decentralization...THE NEXT BIG THING?

How would most people connected to the markets in some significant way/401K ect/ feel about being

paid in silver plus say a 10% fee for the payment to be in a coin/what Kitco offers via these govt minted coins above spot

price of silver? Sure at some point past couple hundred lbs NO THANKS. But how about fractional gold 1/10 oz @ 1500 and oz

cost or 1 oz gold at 30 dollars an oz over spot gold? Now we are talking. 50 lbs gold in coin as a max holding? The 1 in 1000

49'ers tipically got away with all they could carry/50 lbs. Thats 12 x 50 x 1377=826,xxx$ So US mint has sold 500,000,000

silver ounces so far to the investing public (1 Billion oz / year world output/Mexico 21% of that annually-They are comming

out with a silver coin)and silver gold ratio is 78 to 1 were as looking at original silver gold 20 1$ in silver = 20 $ in

gold 178X thru 1932... 20 to 1 (actually silver dollar was 77.344 oz silver, rest was copper so 16 to 1 got you an oz of

gold) 20 into 1345 is 67.25$ how would you feel about payment in silver at 19$? Larry

Oh the weekly chart dollar US $USD stockcharts.com is

unalterably set to death cross 50 day down through the 200 day MA and traders are unwilling to even venture an oversold

bounce give: USA bond sell off 10 year 2.77 indexes major selling off after 1.3 years of 1 percent gains by weekly plus. The

spoofing going on in gold silver no gold silver stocks yes during todays down and back 1345$ dip to Kitco market slant's

'Fork in gold rally below 1330' article out for several hours before the sell down in gold/silver never budged. Also note

that conservatives as ourselves are protecting gains of a lifetime in silver coins and bullion ASAP ASAP ASAP. Those in the

know of what is comming given the markets behavior in decade or two and no way out of US liablities...YOU ME Retirees/welfare

staters feed and house and cloth but thats it given our human right s stance.

This spoofing sell of came at the end of the month and

actually the gold price hit on 1365 Jan 25 envelope for traders closing out monthly books. Gold silver usually rally thru

April and again in June and possibly one more wave up in August July given normal markets normal markets normal markets

When have we had-lastly any kind of normal market situation? 1990 s 2003 Irak invasion thru 2007? BUY BUY BY Larry PS

Ronald Regans OMB 'drain the swamp' David Stockman has been on alarm for 6 months about getting out and safe with your

gains...so far so good but the Teachings/preachings of Stockman are about to unfold. Explosion dead ahead as $HUI has been

being accumulated in consolidation in 2017 see stockcharts.com $HUI dead flat to down below the 50 day on the weekly until

recently above...Estimate value of criptos is 1/2 trillion hackable worthless trader super foddder.

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-01-26/Gold-Sector-Pops-During-Conference-Week-in-Vancouver.html

gold is attempting to hold the $1350 level. The reversal in the GDX

on Thursday also came on trading volume eclipsing that of rally days over the past few weeks, which does not bode well for a

continuation of this move in the miners for the short-term. If you are not fully invested in the

sector, I strongly suggest continuing to buy weakness in the best junior gold & silver developer/explorers and sub $1 billion

market cap growth-oriented producers. A collection of micro-cap, early-stage explorer “lottery tickets” is also advised if

you do not mind a bit more risk. And judging by the cryptocurrency and pot stock moves lately, I believe the mining space is

no longer the riskiest sector in the stock market and has instead become the last deep value alternative left in the

marketplace, especially when you consider the fact that the mining space has a combined market cap of roughly one half of 1%

percent of the stock market.

To put this into historical perspective, at the peak of the last precious metal miner bull market in 2011, the miners made up

2% of the stock market and by the end of the fabulous gold bull which ran from 1971 to 1980, gold investments as a percentage

of Total Global Financial Assets had reached 5.0%. This means gold investment as a percentage of Global Financial Assets were

nearly 9 Times greater in 1980 than it is today. In the event gold investments as a percentage of Global Financial Assets

again rises to 5.0%, it means $5.25 trillion will flood into gold.

Now is the time when

Funds hold miners down to cover their shorts, while buying all the shares from retails. When they have all the shares they

need that's when rally in miners may start. This week was an exciting week for Gold. One thing for sure happened, that minor

' train' definitely left the station. After spending all that time, money, and research making investments. To see them start

to preform was satisfying.
You never want to be the proverbial man pictured running behind the train. Running to catch up. Especially that train. Funny

thing this week, there was a man running behind it. Almost ironic. As the man ran faster and faster to catch up to the train.

You could feel the tenison in the air. Then at the last second, a hand extended. Helping the man board!
That grab, that pick, was my favorite. That is where hero's are born. Thank you Mr. Erfle for the hand. It meant a lot to me.

...

 

  
 
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