July 5, 2022 

Gold Enters Major Bull Market


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 By fredmcain

06/04/2014  6:39AM

Well folks, the jig is up. The bull market in gold is over. You can read about it by copying and pasting this address to your browser:


The title of the article is “Kiss The Gold Bull Market Goodbye”. Yes, it really is over. Sheesh ! What’s hard to figure out is that people just never seem to learn. This is another classic case of the “herd mentality” again.

I do not invest in gold metal or in gold metal funds. But, if I did NOW would be the time to buy for sure! If you want to get into something like this you need to buy when prices are down, not when they are flying sky-high.

A couple of years ago when gold was on a tear and closing in on $2,000 a troy ounce, I remember thinking to myself that if *I* owned any gold, I’d sell it and sell it NOW! History has proven me right. I suspect history might well prove me right again this time. If you want to own gold, buy it now! The rock bottom might still be a long way off but one thing’s for sure. We are a lot closer to the bottom now than we were three years ago! No one ever knows exactly where the bottom to any market is but if you buy something after a big, bear market loss you have a good chance of at least hitting it close.

Like I say, though, people don’t seem to be able to learn this. They make the same mistake over and over again by trying to buy something when it’s hot. They did that with technology stocks in the 1990s. They did it with real estate stocks in the 2001 – 2007 period and then they did it again with gold two, three and four years ago. They buy near the top of the market when something is hot then panic and sell it when it falls. They end up buying high and selling low.

I do not and will not buy gold. Why not? Well, please don’t spread this around but it’s because gold metal itself does not and cannot produce any earnings. *BUT* gold MINING companies do produce real earnings. So, as far as I’m concerned, now is not only a good time but a GREAT time to buy gold and silver mining stocks. Which ones? Personally, I am zeroing in on the Original Sixteen to One mine. But don’t get me wrong, I am not recommending that. That’s just what I’m doing, that’s all. After all, what do I know?

 By bluejay

05/29/2014  6:30PM

Gold For the Close of May

Posted on May 29, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

Gold is moving into the June seasonal low on schedule. A closing for the month on a Nearest Futures basis tomorrow below 1251 should result in the sharp decline. A monthly closing BELOW 1192 will warn serious of a sharp decline that will more than likely break the $1000 level. C A U T I O N is highly advised.
 By fredmcain

05/05/2014  5:12AM


Do you suppose there's any truth to this article?


Collecting Huge Gains From The World's Next "Gold Rush"

When I first heard this I was shocked.

During a recent trip to Asia, I received one of the most startling tips I've ever heard.

I met up with a long-time colleague of mine named Andrew, who runs an investment firm in Singapore. This is a man who's made millions of dollars trading gold and other commodities.

He told me that right now, Chinese officials are quietly building the world's largest national reserves of gold bullion... and within the next year, the Chinese government wants to shock the markets with a surprise announcement of their pumped up holdings.

Sudden word of a buyer like China having tied up so much supply would almost certainly be a hair trigger for gold prices moving up -- and send share prices of a handful of gold producers through the roof.

And because several of these producers pay dividends, it would also give income investors a chance to take advantage of this big growth opportunity, too.

I immediately started looking into this "Gold Rush" story... and it turns out that it's really happening.

Over the past 12 months the Chinese government has been stockpiling gold, with unprecedented quantities being bought and sold through markets in Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

Some of this buying is being reported... but the majority of it is not. The Chinese government is notoriously tight-lipped regarding their finances.

As currency expert and bestselling author, James Rickards, explains:

This Unloved Stock Could Pay A 14% 'Dividend' In 4 Weeks]
"If you're China, the last thing you want to do is be transparent about your gold purchases, because it will drive the price up."

Because of this secrecy, few know that China (already by far the world's largest gold producer) has surpassed India as the world's largest gold importer for the first time in recent history.

You can see what I mean in the chart below. It shows Chinese gold imports over the past 6 years and record increases over the last 3 years.
 By bluejay

05/03/2014  4:01PM

Gold $1300.60 UP $15.70
Silver $19.46 UP $ 0.44

Posted on May 2, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

So far gold’s rally is an outside reversal to the upside on a daily basis, not weekly. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stands at 1336. Support lies at 1280-1272 for this week into next followed by 1240. Resistance starts at 1307 next week followed by 1331. Initial support will rise slightly to 1290.

We still see June and September as the key months ahead followed by next January. Keep in mind that a 3 year reaction from the 2011 high is 2014 but a 3 year from the highest annual closing is 2015.

It is looking more and more like we will see geopolitical on an international basis as well. These politicians on both sides are going to have a real problem when the economy in the US turns down. That is the only economy holding up the entire world right now. Once US consumers stop buying, the people will begin to rise up against government on a wide scale basis. Also keep in mind we have the US election in 2016 and there should be a sharp rise in third-party activity. We are also monitoring a rise in third-party activity everywhere including even in India. So there are a lot more political hot spots getting ready to bubble up to the surface.
 By bluejay

04/14/2014  10:30PM

China's gold demand rising 25% by 2017 as buyers get wealthier
China, which overtook India as the largest user last year, will rise about 25 percent in the next four years.

Author: Nicholas Larkin, Bloomberg
Posted: Tuesday , 15 Apr 2014
Gold demand in China, which overtook India as the largest user last year, will rise about 25 percent in the next four years as an increasing population gets wealthier, according to the World Gold Council.

Consumer demand will expand to at least 1,350 metric tons by 2017, the London-based council said in a report today. Growth may be limited this year after 2013’s price decline spurred consumers to do more buying last year, it said. China accounted for about 28 percent of global usage last year, the council estimated in February.
 By cw3343

03/24/2014  12:59PM

I am not endorsing or confirming anything in the link below (or the website it is on), as I kind of read it rather quickly - but it may answer part of your statement of dumping a lot of gold on the "market"

 By fredmcain

03/24/2014  7:05AM


I am still in the learning process here concerning gold and gold miners. But one thing that dawned on me last week that might really affect the price of gold is the quantity of gold being produced.

Usually things like the fear of future inflation and economic instability are given as being among the biggest movers of gold futures. But what about production?

Last week I received my annual report for Newmont Mining and was astounded to read that they met their goal last years of a 5 million once recovery. WOW ! !! Five million ounces? What does that mean? Does that mean they actually PRODUCED that much gold or simply that they “identified” it.

Because if they really produced that much gold, that sounds like a helluva lotta gold to dump on the market. And that’s just from one mining company. What about Barrack Gold and some of the other biggies? It’s hard for me to believe that they could produce that much gold and not have it affect prices. Don’t the same laws of supply and demand apply to precious metals?

Unlike commodities like grain, oil, pork bellies, coal or natural gas, metals aren’t really “consumed” in the same manner. So it would seem to me like if an oversupply develops (as it has in the past with steel) that could take a long time to work down again.

At the end of the day, won’t this kind of gold production affect the smaller miners like Ruby Gold, Western Pacific Resources and the Original Sixteen To One?

Fred M. Cain
 By Michael Miller

03/17/2014  3:31PM

The message below is likely a sham. Stuff like this was going around twenty plus years ago. It must be a sign that gold speculation is reaching higher levels. A letter like this is for morons.
 By Harvard

03/17/2014  1:54AM

Dear Sir/Madam,

We are Local miners based in Tarkwa, Ghana-West Africa we also have office in the United Kingdom and USA to easy the shipment for our buyers.we have 500kg alluvial gold

dust in stock ready for immediate sale.If you are interested in our gold or want to partner us to develop our mining site your are welcome.

Find bellow the specification of our AU Gold Dust:
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hope to hear from you soon.

contact me with my private email: golddustonline@gmail.com

Yours faithfully
Harvard Bryant
 By bluejay

02/17/2014  6:57PM

"They just voted to raise the debt limit, but they didn’t actually just raise the limit–they suspended it. So, in fact, the sky is the limit. They can pile on as much debt as they want to because right now, there IS no limit to the amount of debt we can have, which means we are going to get a lot more debt. Everybody thinks this is good news. . . . Why is that good news? Maybe that’s good news if you are a gold investor, but it’s bad news for everybody else.”

Peter Schiff
 By bluejay

02/16/2014  3:48PM

Gold $1318.0 UP $18.80
Silver $21.49 UP $ 1.09

It seems that a quiet Sunday is a good time to review the gold market.

The continuing strength in gold has surprised followers since it has been coming down for so long. The obvious question circulating through the minds of the interested is, did gold really bottom above $1150 in June and in late December in 2013?

Make no mistake about this, gold's monthly trend remains bearish aside from this recent strength. What's driving gold at the moment is the increasing riots and protests across western Europe and the kindling tinder box in the Ukraine. People in Europe are becoming active as the financial squeezing by governments is really being felt. Since reform seems out of the question from their representatives, matters appear destined to continue to be grave.

Martin Armstrong who continues to be monthly bearish on gold states that he world war cycle has begun and will only get worse. It seems he may even change his bearish position if gold continues to march higher which it may. Gone are the days of the major banks short term manipulating of commodity prices, this is felt to be very positive for gold. Whether the banks like it or not, government is watching them closer than before and they know it.

Another important factor effecting gold is the U.S. is having a difficult time coming up with Germany's gold which has been requested. Germany is taking it back in little pieces. Could the U.S. government be buying gold in here as well? Was the questioning over the years that our government had sold some of the gold, that they were keeping safe for the Europeans, been correct?

Something is surely in the mix for gold these past weeks. One thing is for sure, the gold shares are turning up after many months in the dumpster. The main acid test came when Newmont Mining cut back their expectations and cut out their dividend. A 15 year low or so was approached at the 20 level when smart buyers couldn't get enough shares at this historic support area. The gold shares were way overdone with gold stabilizing and smart money knew they were on the bargain counter.

Aside from figuring out where gold is headed, the big money has made a statement by making sizable purchases of many big gold companies and some of the junior golds in Canada. Personally, it has been witnessed that one very large buyer has been sinking millions and millions of dollars into gold related issues alone in Canada over the past 10 weeks.

So we wait with continuing patience to see, is this really the push in gold that reignites the aggressive bull market in the metal again?
 By bluejay

12/30/2013  12:06PM

The Majority of Analysis is Bearish in the Metals

December 30, 2013 by Martin Armstrong

The analysis is now turning excessively bearish in the metals. They still have to press lower and as one reader commented “puke their guts” ok. Only then will (we) see a reversal of fortune. It is just not time for the metals. They had their run, now they must regroup and get ready for the next run.
 By bluejay

12/19/2013  6:53PM

Gold $1194.20 OFF $24.50
Silver $ 19.20 OFF $ 0.53

I follow the 5000 day moving average line as an indicator of the long term health of the gold market. The trend continues to be up.
Hourly, daily, weekly and monthly trends will always have a mind of their own. Their excesses will aways be misinterpreted by the media on a regular basis. The die-hard gold analysts are in a world by themselves, always redefining daily events and playing the blame game to excess.

This severe intermediate downdraft is really quite normal, of course very few are that smart to catch the turning point when it began, Martin Armstrong did and he continues to expect further weakness. He has stated that the exercise in the blame game is childish and complete non-sense.

There are many interacting pieces to the gold price puzzle and just concentrating on a few leaves many not to be considered and fails at giving a complete and responsible
analysis of the metal. It is suggested for those who have a real need to be educated that they search Martin Armstrong on the net and read and read and fill their heads with knowledge.

Stop depending on the opinions of so called gold experts, get educated and do your own thinking. I stopped buying pm stocks two years ago, lightened up from the same for about 60%, continued to buy high quality graded gold and silver coins(no bullion
ones) and am awaiting for the intermediate trend to turn up where I will take an increased position in the shares. Patience and the correct timing in this beaten down share market of the gold and silver related issues will be the key in maximizing returns during this continuing major bull market in the precious metals.
 By Michael Miller

12/19/2013  3:28PM

The bulls and bears in markets will always battle. People send me articles or I get information about gold prices. I spend little time thinking about gold prices. Today's news was worth some thoughts. Some thought of others are copied below.

December 19 - Gold $1195 down $41.10 - Silver $19.14 down 87 cents
"Was As Bizarre As Anything I Have Witnessed In Thirty-Eight Years In This Industry" … MLB
"Some traders were surprised that risk assets such as equities rallied on the reduction in quantitative easing while gold came under pressure again which is counter intuitive. Gold’s sell was again due to paper gold selling by traders speculators as there was little increase in selling by owners of bullion.

"Arguably, the Fed’s small taper and statement is bullish for gold as the Fed confirmed that ultra loose monetary policies and the unprecedented zero percent interest policies are set to continue. Also, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to deteriorate as we pointed out yesterday." … Mark O’Byrne, GoldCore
The farce goes on! Yesterday was beyond farce in the degree of the blatant aggressiveness of The Gold Cartel with their efforts to trash gold and silver, while the DOW goes to all-time highs on the same news, news which should have affected both markets in somewhat similar fashion. Course, it has not been this way for 14 months as articulated here and in my presentations at conferences over and over again. Anything to do with QE over this period of time has sent the DOW up nearly 3,000 points and gold down $600 an ounce. And STILL, the financial market press, and most of the gold pundits, remain silent on the issue, fiddling around to make any sort of sense of it all. Anything but to deal with the blatant truth.
Al Capone does it again and is smiling from ear to ear.
Following Fedspeak, The Gold Cartel crushed any sort of shortcovering rally and then began to lean on gold in the Access Market with one of their PLAN C operations. Support at $1220 was breached and the price ended the day around that price level. That was only Jacks for Openers, as they were only waiting to go into an aggressive PLAN A mob hit in London this morning at the exact same as usual…

By the time this attack was over, gold had taken out key psychological support at $1200, falling to $1192 on its low of the day. This puts gold at a new correction low close over the past 28 months.
To corroborate just how corrupt this financial market terrorist attack really was, one only needs to see how the price of silver collapsed with gold. Of course, silver is tied at the hip to gold in the suppression scheme matter. Silver took out its support and fell all the way to $19.05 before stopping its plunge. This is with the DOW rocketing to all-time highs, the prices of copper steady, and crude oil going higher. Why should silver collapse in that scenario? Yep, the farce goes on and on and on.
You can count on one thing for sure. This was all set-up. All that matters is what the US Government (via the Fed and Exchange Stabilization Fund) had in mind for the gold and silver prices following whatever Fedspeak was really all about. The notion that the spec shorts were being set up by JP Morgan and others in The Gold Cartel was just plain wrong. Instead The Gold Cartel is using the specs shorts to carry out their mission. Same drill we have seen all year. They cap all rallies and pressure the market the same way ALL THE TIME, such as this hideous PLAN A selling. The spec shorts, which aren’t bluffed out by these brief sharp rallies, then pile on and down the price goes, with spec longs who are still around getting slaughtered.
Another way of putting what happened yesterday, with today as an encore…
White Knuckle Time:
Yesterday’s precious metals and stock action immediately before and after the announcement by the U.S. Fed of a $10b per month reduction in the bond-buying "stimulus" (read: "bank handouts") was as bizarre as anything I have witnessed in thirty-eight years in this industry.
To say that the markets’ collective responses to the announcement appeared contrived is the understatement of the century. Literally seconds before the announcement, several thousand S&P futures contracts were bought at-the-market driving equities through the roof with a simultaneous assault in the gold pits. It was as if a pre-programmed algorithm executed orders designed to ensure that the market’s response to the "taper" was positive while capping precious metals at the same time.
The outcome was a near-three-hundred point rally in the Dow to a record close and a 2.7% drop in gold despite the fact that a $10 billion dollar reduction still left $75 billion to be injected every month into the banking system with money created out of thin air…
The AM Fix stunk up the place at $1205.25. The PM Fix was worse, as it plunged to $1196, which ought to be a new low for the move down.
The gold open interest rose 1167 contracts to 386,599. The silver open interest went up 1144 contracts to 134,450. An indicator—which has been 100% predictive since silver started its run down beginning in early October of last year at $35+ an ounce— has been a rising silver open interest. As documented here, this has also been the case at various key times over the past five years.
James Mc…
Open bomb bay door, release derivative payload
The gold market has become little more than scheduled carpet bombings. The brazen nature of the assaults keep reaching new heights. The scheduled flash crashes around 3:00 AM, 8:00 AM, Comex open, 9:30 AM and 10:00 AM are nothing more than pure unadulterated cartel hits. Incredibly 1.327 million ounces of paper gold was sold in just 6 flash crash minutes. That's a total of 46.66 tons at an average of 1 ton sold every 7 seconds. No legitimate trading could ever go down like this.
2:40 AM: 1,262 Feb. contracts sold -126,200 oz. / 3.94 tons
2:41 AM: 3,709 Feb. contracts sold - 370,900 oz./ 11.59 tons
8:21 AM: 1,654 Feb contracts sold - 165,400 oz./ 5.17 tons
8:47 AM: 2,295 Feb contracts sold - 229,500 oz./ 7.17 tons
10:00 AM: 2,530 Feb contracts sold - 253,000 oz./ 7.91 tons
10:06 AM: 3,482 Feb contracts sold - 348,200 oz./ 10.88 Tons
2:40- 2:41 AM was the biggy.

No news, just 4,971 shorts hitting in the thinnest trade possible. Once more hats off to those "new breed" spec shorts, who keep knocking it out of the park. Those alleged commercials that got very long must be feeling like boneheads right now. We can assume that if JPM is indeed the commercial long (as some allege) then these devastating trading losses will be showing up in their Q-4 P&L. Seeing how JPM makes money virtually every single trading day of the year this will be a real switch! The RSI and stochastics would indicate that $1180 is still the goal, as I have suspected since early November. We came within $12 of that figure after today's last flash crash at 10:06 AM. $1180 is now only a hop, skip, and flash crash away. The next 3 Fridays should provide ample thin trade to make it happen.
Ring out 2013, and hope the cartel physical ammo is as low as they are acting. Surely they've seen those spaghetti westerns where the bad guy dies only after his revolver starts making clicking noises instead of firing bullets. That's the best visual I have right now for where we are.
James Mc
Inputs and comments
*Trader Rog…
to bill at 7:00 AM
hi bill,
you won't be happy when you wake up. or if you
are awake, i know you're not happy. big dump
this is why i think we have one more hit. 5% down
from the june lows if we follow what the HUI did.
i'm getting back into my silver futures if we see
$18 spot silver.
*It's a shame
Mornin' Bill:
It's sure a shame that an honest industry can be shut down by those tryin' to keep a dis-honest industry limping along.
Mining is an honest industry because the end products can't be faked.
Paper promises like currencies and derivatives can.
Only labor plus raw materials can produce and thus increase the world's real wealth.
I'm truly understanding Germany's history during the first half of the 1900s now.
Certain sociopaths really can lie and steal their way to success (for a while) and subjugate a portion of the world.
Recent lower prices for gold and silver confirm this, almost on a daily basis.
CNBC Santelli's question "just what is Bernanke afraid of?" is the collapse of the sociopaths.
There'll be little to nothing left.
Edward Ulysses Cate
*Accelerated Au and Ag Manipulation portends Paradigm Shift
Dec 19, 2013

With the ongoing and accelerated price suppression of gold and silver and another major hit today to new recent lows (or very close), I believe the Chinese [banksters] have taken over leadership of the manipulation. Surely they have the HF algo computer skills to do this. It all fits logically, does it not? They want the gold to back their new currency and they manipulate Ag down as a "tag along." The lower the "price" the more they can accumulate with their stores of paper/digital fiat. Who knows, maybe even JPM, or a sub entity, is in cahoots with them?
When the US is dry, one of these days, and one would think very soon now, they orchestrate (or it happens on its own) a major revaluation— say they stop accepting paper dollars for payment of goods. After some chaos, we have a currency system reboot with new price levels and new global currency valuations with the dollar, and therefor ALL financial assets, at much lower valuations. Au and Ag are likely to be at much higher (multiple) valuations. Make sense?
Does it fit with Eastern CBs taking a different path than Western CBs? I think so.
What can the Fed do in this scenario? I don’t see any significant counter.
So if one thinks this is a plausible or likely scenario, how would one hedge or prepare for? (Hint: phyz#$al) And of course GATA be in it to win it!
Chris K
*Gold and commodity commentary
This article in the link below caught my eye and is from the FT today. It is written by Mark Haefele, Global Head of Investment at UBS Wealth Management, and Chris Wright, Cross-Asset Strategist.
Within the article is a fascinating sentence as follows: "Fourth, in the case of gold, investors will long remember 2013 as the year that their precious shiny metal ceased to be a safe haven. In April, gold plummeted 14 per cent in two days, including 9 per cent in a single day. And this was only the fifth largest one-day fall since the end of the gold standard. No asset with this kind of volatility should be considered safe."
Looks like those who don't like gold have achieved their aim for 2013.
Behavioral Finance
*The yield of the 10 yr T note rose to 2.93% and is right below its multi-year high. This is one to watch closely, as are the dollar and crude oil. A mix of a 3%+ yield, oil over $100 per barrel, and a breakdown of the dollar below 79.80 could really roil the stock markets.
*The Gold Cartel’s price suppression scheme remains in play. We may only know the why of all of this as time goes by. One thing is certain. This is all about some agenda that involves most of the western central banks. They are VERY scared of something, or have crucified the gold price for some ulterior motive to be known in the future.
Crude oil rose 75 cents per barrel to $98.81.
The dollar was up .0018 to 80.64. The euro fell .0039 to 1.3556. The pound dropped .0020 to 1.6370. The yen went down .11 to 104.23.
Naturally, the DOW closed higher again to another all-time high. It went up 11 to 16,179. The DOG, which was sharply lower yesterday before Fedspeak, fell 12 to 4054.
 By bluejay

11/27/2013  11:14PM


Thanks for the coal idea. Westmoreland seems to agree with you.
 By bluejay

11/27/2013  4:25PM

Hi Fred

There is the possibility that gold could remain out favor for upwards of five years but I doubt it. A famous trader once said, "I don't buy anything until the trend turns up."
I believe he was referring to the intermediate trend. The gold shares currently are a train wreck. Some have been slaughtered and their future remains uncertain.

Concerning the general market shares, according to Martin Armstrong, they will continue higher until the beginning of the 4th quarter in 2015. This man has the best batting average on Wall Street.

Concerning the Wall Street Journal, they are unreliable and most often have an agenda of their own. Once the DOW clears 16,200 the probabilities greatly increase that the averages will double. Of course you'll never be able to sell that to the public after the smashing that took place in the 2007 to 2008 period.

Good luck with your purchases, no help needed with Probe. Your ideas concerning coal are interesting.
 By fredmcain

11/27/2013  6:48AM

My thoughts here on gold:

I have been reading in the Wall Street Journal as of late that this is a bad time to buy most stocks because with the recent raging bull market, many stocks are overpriced. So, what do you buy?

Simple answer: You buy what's still cheap. And that would be? Why, mining companies, of course! They are the one thing that's really down this year. It has been said about stocks that they are the one thing that when they go "on sale" people tend to shy away from them. Many people who would see an ad for shoes at half price or coffee on sale – any item really – tend to jump at the chance. But not with stocks. Why not? Warren Buffett does! He sees something on sale – he buys!

I have bought some mining stocks this year and the Original Sixteen to One is among them. I also bought Newmont, Hecla and Probe. I am not an investor of gold or silver metal because those items have no earnings – but mining companies do. (As long as they don't go out of business - you're good).

Another thing that might be a good investment, believe it or not, is coal mining companies like Peabody. I know, I know, sounds crazy, huh, but you never know. Coal companies are REALLY cheap right now and the rumors of King Coal’s death might be greatly exaggerated. Time will tell, however. I think it might be worth the risk.

My greatest fear with OSTO continues to be its legal problems with the State of California. I continue to hope and pray that there will be an outbreak of sanity at the State. Hope springs eternal.

Fred M. Cain
 By bluejay

11/26/2013  12:10PM

Gold – Beating a Dead Horse
Posted on November 25, 2013 by Martin Armstrong


Hello Mr. Armstrong,

I understand your thoughts on manipulating against a trend, but with gold being halted for the 4th time in 3 months by large sales orders placed during illiquid hours, does there come a time when you can say, “OK, something fishy is going on here.”?

Banks have been caught manipulating energy, aluminum and libor – So why would gold be so special as to not be manipulated?

“Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, but three times is enemy action.” – Ian Flemming, Creator of James Bond

ANSWER: Talking directly with real sources, it has been liquidation. If it were a manipulation, they would be covering the shorts. They have not done that. This has been simply liquidation that is going with the trend. There is no depth to the market anymore. Liquidity is down by 50% on everything. This is the same kind of liquidation that took place in the last year of the Nikkei. It is just capitulation. The orders are not even that large. There is simply a lack of buyers even during the liquid hours. People would flock to buy gold if there was a real solid bull market bid.

It is just a matter of time. Let the liquidation take place. It has to do this. Mines will close and shorts will then build going into the lows. It will be the shorts who make the low – NEVER longs. At the low, people can only see it going lower and at the high, it will explode to a new plateau any day now. In 1929, Irving Fisher became famous for saying the new high reflected the real economy and it was a new plateau that would hold. In Japan, they said the Nikkei was destined for 100,000. In gold in 1980 $1,000 was a blink-of-the-eye away as was $100 silver. With the introduction of the Euro, the press touted that the pound would collapse because it was not joining. A major German manufacturer sold a year’s worth of sales in Britain short on the news. I got called in to get them out of a $1 billion loss based on what they read in the press.

You simply MUST break the back of sentiment to reverse a trend be it up or down. Yes, you are beating a dead horse. The longer you make excuses, the longer you will suffer losses and fail to see how markets really trade. If all the commodities were in a bull market and ONLY gold was declining, that would imply something is wrong. But that is not the case here for the entire sector is declining as is Emerging Markets who were the big buyers in commodities. Nobody, not the Fed or any powerful group with all the bribes paid to the IMF to keep funding Russia, can prevent a reversal in trend.

The Club, or market manipulators, tried to get me involved directly. I looked them right in the eye. They invited me to the IMF dinner to try to impress me how they had government in their back pocket. It does not matter. All the bribes in Christendom cannot make a bull market out of a bear market. They have lowered rates to virtually zero in Japan for more than 20 years. It failed to stimulate the economy.

The Club are in this game for the quick fast buck – not for systemic manipulation. That is just absurd. Where is the immediate profit in that? They manipulate government systemically to prevent being criminally charged with countless manipulations. But that is starting to come back to bite them in the ass. They could not control every government and in Britain, they could not stop the investigation into LIBOR.

A very famous member of the Club lost money – his employee’s pension money he played with on the side in England. He somehow fell off his yacht and drowned preventing any investigation into the Club. I would not trust these people with the keys to my car to simply park it. They keep trying to manipulate but they blow themselves up every time. How many bailouts have there been? They are not even good at the game because they think they can bribe their way to profits and never consider the risks that independent analysis reveals.

Nevertheless, they are by no means interested in pressing gold lower systemically. Every manipulation they have pulled off going right back to the 1980 and using the Hunts to get the public involved, has been on the UPSIDE. Why? It is easier to manipulate the metals for whenever they rally, everyone WANTS to believe this time is real. They get a deep market and sell the top every time. They changed the rules in the metals in 1980 lowering margins to a fraction for themselves (shorts) and increasing them if you were long. That was CRIMINAL, but they own the CFTC. There is no quick buck in pressing metals lower except selling into a major high or spike rally. They want money NOW – not later! Most of the big players are out and those remaining will make the low when the finally capitulate.

Gold has followed the same pattern as every other market when it gets into an over-bought position. You ran up for 13 years. THERE MUST BE A CORRECTION after that. There is no exception. Why constantly make excuses? Just go with the flow and you will make more money than refusing to accept the simple fact that what goes up, also goes down. I do not care what the fundamentals are. Bullish news in a bear market is NEVER bullish enough. Bearish news in a bull market is ignored. The trend decides all interpretation.

Gold is in line with all other markets. The stocks are rallying because that is the focus of big money. They need DIVIDENDS to compensate for the low yield in bonds especially pension funds or they will go bust. Gold offers no such dividend. Only capital appreciation when it rises. They get both trends in stocks and with a rising dollar, the foreign investor get currency gains on top of it..
 By bluejay

11/26/2013  10:55AM

Gold $1241.20 Down $10.40
Silver $19.86 Down $ 0.35

Gold continues to be in a severe intermediate reaction following the 2011 highs. It's is common to hear the beat of, gold is in a bear market. I have always focused on the long term trend which remains bullish above the 5000 day moving average which is just under $1000. All my metal positions are intact as I continue to sporadically add to that position.

Gold will go much higher than the 2011 highs of about $1930 as the long term bullish trend reasserts it presence, probably in 2014. In the meantime, the use of bear market can be related to the minute, hourly, short and intermediate trends BUT I'm in for the long haul and witness these periods of weakness as opportunities by methodically buying on a staggered time basis.

The following submitted article by Martin Armstrong tells it like it is, as it should be as a basis, not for fear of the metal going lower but as basis to grasp the reality of the current market in hopes of using it best to your advantage.

For the moment, gold is going through liquidations with the funds being transferred into the private sector, mostly financially fit industrial shares that pay a dividend. This trend will continue into 2015. Call me compromised but I'll stick with gold's long term major bull market and wait for tomorrow.

Martin Armstrongs's article will have already preceded this commentary.
 By bluejay

10/31/2013  9:42PM

Gold $1322.50 Down $30.00
Silver $21.91 Down $ 0.88

Both gold and silver continue to be plagued by unsettled market conditions. The short term charts look miserable. The long term bull market continues to be intact but investor confidence has been shaken and is vulnerable to worsen on any further shakes to the downside with new recent lows. Short term rebounds joining in with the bull trend are usually commenced following investor shake outs.

In early October the 250 day moving average on gold drifted lower under its 1000 day average which may be setting the stage for a drop off in the weeks or a few months ahead.

With tax selling season upon us the general gold share market could be under pressure for the next two months, at least.

The current declining phase for the past two years from above $1900 has been brutal for many of us. Some hold gold at around the $400 level to much higher prices for recent purchasers.

As long as the government continues acting the way it does along with all the political in-fighting gold must be held regardless of price. I have bought from $350 all the way up to $1750 and don't lose any sleep worrying about it. When I do, I will buy again. If gold goes under $1000 which it could, then we would be near a short term bottom. When gold turns higher it should be bought again. When it does, Martin Armstrong will report it and you will be informed as soon as he does.

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