June 22, 2018 
 Friday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By Rick

11/07/2004  9:16AM

Thanks Lynwood, as I certainly include you as a guidance source.

What do I have in mind? Nothing new, just looking for an easily explained rationale for when people ask me to connect the dots in the world of gold and its value. (My interest has always been long term and more ethereal as far as my own personal finds are concerned, as well as and separate from my personal interest in OAU.) I do recognize how today the upward trend in gold prices doesn't seem to be connected to the inflation index as in the past, as you've all pointed out.

Perhaps there's a new parameter on the horizon, something other than oil and the dollar and China's new global participation and gold? Does the global pursuit against terrorism play into uncertainty?

Certainly, I'm not looking for a "predictable-all-in-one-quick-fix-get-rich" strategy, as anyone who knows me personally will attest; it goes against my grain. As we know, fraudulent fortunes have been made, manipulating stories of booms and busts, and nothing is foolproof when the human propensity for acquiring wealth runs amuck.

I guess that's why I asked.
 By lynwood

11/07/2004  12:18AM

There is no history of gold that will reveal future events. Gold has no challenger for its eminence as wealth, if wealth is viewed from a historical perspective. Probably the only readers of this forum own gold is some form. Rick and Blujay own a percentage of the brown bear, sixteen to one, plumbago, bald mountain, tightner, red star, and lesser gold producing mines in California. Right? And gfxgold finds gold dredging and hopes to find gold in the hard quartz of Alleghany. Me, I have my gold in many forms.

I report basic facts about past present and future gold subjects. There are no historical averages for gold that are worth computing. The spread is thousands of years and arbitrary. It seems like the current trend of oil, inflation (real or implied) fear of investment positions, and the good old supply and demand situations influenced value in President Carter’s turn at the wheel. A noteworthy difference is interest rates and inflation.

There have been advocates for and against gold in the United States over 150 years. They exist today. As the value of gold or the dollar is based on hard and soft factors, interest in companies that produce gold have an advantage over other forms of gold ownership, including the physical stuff in your possession. The krugar rands were the early leaders for taking possession of gold. The South African coin was a safe purchase because the fineness and weight were established. Inflation today and interest rates verses the Carter time period is worth talking about. Oil and its exchange between buyers and sellers rocked the ratio between dollars and gold and oil. The big shocks occurred during President Reagan’s turn at the wheel.

Today, China is manufacturing and the production of everything; Middle East supplies the energy to live; the West exchanges currency and protection. The relationship during Carters time excluded China as a factor. What was left boiled down to oil and gold. Bankers were fooled by what they observed along with other investors. Where do bankers stand today? During the Carter/Reagan years, banks published their gold holding and sales. No one ever published his or her purchases. Major media reported every sale. Not so today. However, tomorrow will be different and today will be history. Is there manipulation? The advocates against gold and the advocates with it battle today. Thos people or companies or counties “with it” are numerically few in number. Both sides manipulate. The single greatest current dominant factor today that did not exist years ago may be China. Then again it may be the internet and older means of communicating.

THERE IS NO RATIONAL WAY, RICK. What do you have in mind?
 By Rick

11/06/2004  7:05PM

gfxgold and bluejay, I turn to you for insight.

Is there a rational for why gold was so low within these times since Jimmy Carter; or are we (and if we are, where are the parameters) experiencing an upsurge against some historical average?
 By gfxgold

11/06/2004  10:00AM

Gold, $432.90. Most precious metals are up across the board, mostly due to the drop in the value of the dollar. Hopefully, the dollar won't take a big hit but, psycologically start the value of gold up the next rung of the ladder.
 By bluejay

10/31/2004  12:01PM

A new and powerful message concerning gold has just been posted today on the website by Mr. Jim Sinclair at http://www.jsmineset.com under the tile of, "The Real War."

The message is chilling.

The bottom line is:

1- A new Muslim currency called the gold Dinar will emerge as a superior currency to the U.S. Dollar.

2- The Russian Ruble will emerge as a superior currency to the U.S. Dollar.

3- "If you fail to own gold and gold shares but rather depend on the U.S. Dollar to protect your life's work you are in for the worst of disappointments."

4- "Reduce debt if you can and move your gold and gold share position up to no less than 33 1/3 percent of your liquid net worth."

Dan Norcini posted an informative guest editorial Friday, October 29th, entitled, "From Russian with Love" on the same website commenting on a story concerning the Russian Ruble.

The message from both stories is clear, the U.S. debt has gone too far and as Mr. Norcini concluded, "As usual, it will be the ordinary citizens who will have to bear the brunt of the lunacy of bureaucrats and career politicians."
 By gfxgold

10/24/2004  11:44PM

Gold, $428.40... and rising. the price of gold has had resistance once it gets close to $430. let's see what happens this time.
 By bluejay

10/24/2004  4:44PM

The Dollar is weaker in Australia at 85.47 which is off -.50 from its New York close.

Gold's last is 427.60 up 3.60

Remember, the 85 to 86 level is support on the Dollar. If this level yields to sellers or the lack of buyers, gold will move higher.
 By bluejay

10/21/2004  12:15PM

An excellent chart showing the price comparison between the U.S. Dollar and gold was posted on the jsmineset.com website today. It can be accessed by going to http://www.sitedynamo.com/cwsv3/trial530369/miscfiles/danchart-oct20-04.pdf.

The past 14 month relationship clearly shows that gold moves in the opposite direction in a locked step with the Dollar.

The chart clearly defines the 85 to 86 support area for the Dollar and the 425 to 430 resistance area on gold. If the support area on the Dollar is broken it will certainly propel gold higher and through the 430 area.

The current price of gold and the U.S. Dollar is available 24 hours of each international trading day at http://www.kitco.com.

The chart was created by Dan Norcini/Houston,Texas.
 By bluejay

10/20/2004  8:52PM

Russia's central banker says gold should be considerably higher.

Oleg V. Mozhaiskov, Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia, made an important speech relating to gold and mentioned GATA(Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) in speaking at the London Bullion Market Association's gathering at the Baltchus Kempinsky Hotel in Moscow during the period covering June3-4, 2004. The text of that speech was just now made available by GATA.

The report is available for reading at Google.com. Search GATA and you will find it as the second displayed heading, "Russia's Central Bank takes note of GATA."

Bill Murphy, Chairman of GATA, makes some eye opening comments concerning his not being able to gain access to this speech for months at http://www.smartstox.com/interviews/gata4.html.
 By bluejay

10/04/2004  9:46PM

Lynwood
You sound quite historically savy. You are a rare breed. My analysis of future prices is mainly based on long term historical chart patterns.

Just in the past few years I have increased my education on patterns by reading Jim Sinclair at http://www.jsmineset.com. As I have mentioned here on the Forum a few times, Mr. Sinclair maintains an access free website. If he charged $1000 for an annual membership it would be well worth it.

Fundamentals and history will always be important.
 By lynwood

10/01/2004  9:15PM

It is true, Bluejay, that those with historic knowledge of commodities remember that gold and black gold drive the financial capitals of the world and of individuals’ holdings. My history is better than most but my confidence that I understand the precarious positions many have placed themselves with debt and equity is not as strong. I prefer the strong sense of history in gold since 1968 than putting the contemporary point across. Gold and black gold, well, the public thinks it knows who owns the oil. How about the gold? Where is the gold? Who owns the gold? Who controls the gold or is it the same as those who own it? Neither of us will ever have the answer to these questions because the very essence of gold blocks outsiders from knowing. That is why those oil sheiks traded their dollars for gold in the close of the 1970’s. Your predictions are good. Are they fundamental, technical or historical?
 By bluejay

10/01/2004  11:05AM

Apocalypse Now?
By Julius Cobbet
Posted '30-SEP-04 15:00'
GMT @ Mineweb 1997-2004
JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) - excerpt

Current trends certainly indicate that the world is experiencing a shortage of non-renewable resources. Oil is attracting the majority of the attention. This year crude oil has hit all-time highs; spare capacity - the difference between supply and demand - is said to be the lowest it has ever been. At the time of the oil crisis in the 1980's, spare capacity was estimated to be 15 million barrels a day. Currently, the margin is estimated to be less than 1 million barrels; indicating serious supply difficulties for the future.

Gold and oil have a historical relationship, their price strengths and weaknesses are closely interwoven together.
 By bluejay

09/14/2004  1:45PM

Keep yourself informed on why gold has to go higher by logging in to the free website, jsmineset.com. Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? What do the expanding political changes in Russia mean to the price of gold?

This site represents a shinning beacon of truth that most certainly you will never completely find in the newspapers or on the nightly news.

The day is coming when the remaining wealthy investors will be to some degree holding gold and the companies that produce it.

The respected Paul Van Eeden whose commentaries appear frequently at kitco.com under Kitco Contributed Commentaries is stressing investing in some select gold exploration companies.

According to these two men, along with Richard Russell, gold is dirt cheap.
 By lynwood

07/17/2004  11:56AM

In Response to Rick on January 31,2004

The global thought you ask has changed over the last century; however with a slight substitution maybe the following is valid. To paraphrase most every seasoned text on international (that is what it was called before global) trade and financial relationships, the functioning of a gold standard in any country is greatly affected by the number of countries employing it. This point is important because of the wide variations in the geographic coverage of gold standards during the past century. For a few decades prior to 1914 gold standards were used by virtually every commercially important country in the world. Later the numbers fluctuated widely until the United States became almost alone in its use. The decade between the mid 60’s and 70’s collapsed the long-standing position of gold in international trade. Or did it? If we substitute the word “countries” with companies, corporations or groups or individuals, maybe today the global financial players are still using the only currency of payment trade and wealth storage that will last. When you think of oil, think of gold.
 By bluejay

05/30/2004  12:54PM

The overall selling pressure on gold has ended. The month of May will be marked as a reversal month that set up higher prices for the time period leading into May of 2006 where gold prices are expected to then hit 524.
 By bluejay

03/30/2004  10:02AM

Lynwood

Barrick has threatening financial problems as a direct result of their lessened but continuing in place old gold derivatives program.

For complete details visit the http://www.jsmineset.com website and locate the story, Newmont To Make Takeover Bid For Barrick?
 By bluejay

03/29/2004  8:55PM

Russia's Norilsk Nickel was reported in the Financial Times today, March 30, 2004, to have purchased a 20 percent stake in Gold Fields of South Africa. Norilsk Nickel is the world's tenth biggest gold producer itself.

Norilsk also holds the number one position for production of nickel and palladium in the world. Last year Norilsk purchased a controlling interest in the U.S. palladium and platinum producer, Stllwater Mining. Since that investment, palladium prices have shot up over 25%.

People should be aware of the inside market knowledge that the Russians are shrewd metals traders.

Norilsk made Gold Fields purchase along with current talks in South Africa of an impending 3% government royalty charge to the gold producers. No question about it, Norilsk is looking for a much higher gold price in the time period ahead that will undoubtedly dwarf the 3% proposed royalty expense.
 By bluejay

03/29/2004  8:55PM

Russia's Norilsk Nickel was reported in the Financial Times today, March 30, 2004, to have purchased a 20 percent stake in Gold Fields of South Africa. Norilsk Nickel is the world's tenth biggest gold producer itself.

Norilsk also holds the number one position for production of nickel and palladium in the world. Last year Norilsk purchased a controlling interest in the U.S. palladium and platinum producer, Stllwater Mining. Since that investment, palladium prices have shot up over 25%.

People should be aware of the inside market knowledge that the Russians are shrewd metals traders.

Norilsk made Gold Fields purchase along with current talks in South Africa of an impending 3% government royalty charge to the gold producers. No question about it, Norilsk is looking for a much higher gold price in the time period ahead that will undoubtedly dwarf the 3% proposed royalty expense.
 By lynwood

03/29/2004  9:34AM

A surprising report! Could it be a paper shuffle for reorganizing to trim overhead? Would this be just a continuing of the growth and consolidation phase of our global economy? What will be the US federal government response (Sherman anti trust action as it did in Microsoft)? In what ways could you and me be affected? Could this impact the small gold producers like 16 to 1? Barrick stole Homestake and left its shareholders with reduced value. Is this a win-win or will one side of shareholders gain at the expense of the other? Will anyone other than the few of us who understand the historical lessons of sound currency and the freedom it provides the common man have any reaction (pro or con)? Is this another step in the fraud and manipulation slowly being revealed about big gold (Blanchard suit)? Thanks for the tip, Bluejay. Could the continuation of past events within the gold mining/ banking or money creation/ social and political industries be like putting a happy frog into a pot of refreshing water on top of a stove with a flame underneath the pot?
 By bluejay

03/28/2004  10:30PM

The Sunday Telegraph reported March 28th that Barrick Gold, the world's third biggest gold producer, may receive a takeover offer from larger rival Newmont Mining Corp.

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