October 16, 2018 
 Tuesday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By bluejay

10/28/2007  5:47PM

Gold is selling at $788.50, up $5.00 in Sydney and Hong Kong.
 By bluejay

10/26/2007  10:47AM

$783.50 last on gold in NY.
 By bluejay

10/25/2007  8:57PM

Gold trading at $775.00 in Asian markets.
 By bluejay

10/18/2007  4:30PM

Gold $768.00
Silver $13.78
Gold/Silver Ratio 55.73
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.32

There's a great self explanatory picture tonight at jsmineset.com's website of what is in store for the gold shorts.
 By Michael Miller

10/17/2007  9:55AM

Answer to Greenhorn's Question - (see the question below)

Performa Statement: ORIGINAL SIXTEEN TO ONE MINE, INC.

Factual production:
Historical production from Plumbago veins is four (4) ounces of gold per foot.
Historical production from Sixteen to One veins is eleven (11) ounces of gold per foot.
Historical production (Recent) from Sixteen to One mine between 1992 and 1997:
Total production is 32,924 ounces of gold, which average 5,487 ounces per year.

Assumptions:
Spot price of bullion gold: $650.00 per ounce.
Footage mined: Four hundred (400) feet per month.
Development mining = Two hundred (200) feet per month.
Production mining = Two hundred (200) feet per month.
Ounces of gold from development are zero (0).
Ounces of gold from production are eleven (11) per foot.

Conclusions:

Production and revenue based on actual mining between 1992 and 1997:
Annual production: 5,487 @ $650 per ounce = $3,566,550.00
Production and revenue based on actual early historic figures:
Total production: 26,400@ $650 per ounce= $17,160,000

Performa statement for Special target #1

Production and revenue based on similar actual work and results between 1992 and 1997.
The production phase is eighteen (18) weeks long or thirty-five percent (35%) of a year.
Total production: 1,920 @ $650 per ounce = $1,248,000


Performa statement for Special target #2

Production and revenue based on similar actual work and results between 1992 and 1997.
The production phase is twenty (20) weeks long or thirty-eight percent (38%) of a year.
Total production: 2,085 @ $650 per ounce = $1,355,250

Total first year production and revenue for Special Targets:

Recent Assumptions:
Total Production 9,492 @ $650 per ounce = $6,169,800
Historical and Actual recent Assumptions:
Total production 30,405 @ $650 per ounce - $19,763,250

Notes: The company sells gemstone quartz/gold that exceeds the spot price.
The use of proceeds includes a long term mining plan without projections of gold production and is classified as “development”; however a study of the history of the Sixteen to One suggests that it is highly unlikely to develop the vein to the extent planned without encountering an ore shoot.
 By greenhorn

10/16/2007  5:20PM

Here's a question. If you look backwards at what the last $5 million in effort bought in terms of gold production, what do you see? Obviously this has to be approximate, etc., but might give some idea of what $5 million more could deliver.

Just a thought.
 By Michael Miller

10/12/2007  12:48PM

I rarely jump into the gold price discussion. Peter Degraaf’s views on the fundamentals are those that I and some of the people I associate with have known for years. Fundamentals do count. A technical analysis is also a method of determining an investment. Maybe the appreciation for open discussion will be the straw that breaks the doubt of people with a desire to get into gold and have access to money to look into our operation and plans for growth.. Please don’t remind me of Brea X as if we somehow fit into that category.

The Sixteen owns outright its mines. It is a gold producer. Its working capital needs are modest ($5 million). It has the mining expertise. It has a proven product that sells for a price that greatly exceeds the spot bullion price. It has large holdings with identifiable past production and large virgin ground. It is in a secure country. It has a history of perseverance and wisdom to exist for 100 years.

So, where are the men to step to the plate? Many more pieces of evidence are out there to support an investment in gold. If anyone knows one as good as ours, please write me. It is a risk/rewards evaluation. Also what is the upside potential verses the downside risk. Work out that equation as you search for the best gold play. I did.
 By martin newkom

10/11/2007  4:44PM

They did announce a new strike
in Australia a week or so ago
 By bluejay

10/11/2007  11:03AM

The following article complete with charts can be viewed at http://www.kitco.com/ind/Degraaf/oct112007.html

By Peter Degraaf
It will never cease to amaze me how many people who call themselves ‘gold bugs’, still don’t believe that the current gold move is for real. They worry about the central bankers, the plunge protection team, the COT’s and goodness knows who else.

It’s time to step away from the ‘daily noise’ and look at the fundamentals, and then see if the ‘technicals’ line up alongside, to provide confirmation.

The fundamentals are incredibly bullish!

The money supply worldwide is increasing about seven times faster than the supply of newly mined gold.


Much of the gold listed as inventory by central banks, has been leased out, yet still shows up as physical gold.


The gold at Fort Knox has not been audited since 1953!


New gold discoveries are few and far between.


Every gold mine is a ‘depleting asset’. Once it’s gone, it’s gone.


Due to rising energy prices, the cost of exploring and mining is making some projects uneconomic, even at 740.00/oz. In addition a lot of mining equipment is on ‘back order’ – tires, trucks etc.


There is a shortage of qualified mining experts. The good ones are all employed, and due to the fact that the industry went through a bear market from 1981 – 2001, not enough people graduated with mining degrees, to replace those who are now retiring.


Even if a new supply of gold were found tomorrow, it would take many years, dozens of permits, and possible court challenges from ‘tree huggers’ before this new supply could come to market.


There are several billion more potential buyers (think jewelry), on the planet who were not part of the consuming public in 1980, when gold rose to 850.00


Two of the fastest growing economies are China and India. It just happens that both of these groups of people have a love for gold. The middle class in both of these countries is growing by leaps and bounds.


Adjusted for inflation, today’s gold price of 740.00 compares to just over 300.00 in 1980 dollars. GOLD IS CHEAP!
Now for some exciting charts:



Featured is the GDX, gold ETF. The green arrow points to an upside breakout, from a pennant formation (blue lines). Very bullish! The RSI is rising again after having eliminated some excess bullishness (blue arrow). The MACD is preparing to turn up again (black arrow). The 50DMA has just completed a ‘golden crossover’ with the 200DMA (blue and red lines). Both moving averages are rising (green oval).



Featured is the HUI index of unhedged gold and silver mining stocks. The green arrow points to an upside breakout from a flag formation. This is usually a very reliable bullish signal, and sets up a target at 490! (That’s 490!)

The blue arrow points to the RSI turning back up in support of the move. The black arrow points to the MACD which is about to turn positive again. The 50DMA and 200DMA (red and blue lines in the middle of the chart), are in positive alignment and both are rising. IT DOES NOT GET MUCH BETTER!



Featured is the XAU mining stock index for those of you who prefer this index instead of the HUI. The picture is just as bullish as for the HUI. An upside breakout from a bullish flag (green arrow), the RSI and MACD rising in support (blue and black arrows), and the 50DMA and 200DMA (green oval), in positive alignment and rising. The target here is 215!



Featured is the chart that compares the XAU mining index to the gold price. When this chart pattern is rising, it indicates that gold and the gold shares are in ‘rising mode’. We are looking here at another bullish pattern called: “Cup with handle”. The blue arrow points to the handle. We can see it not only in the index itself, but also in the supporting indicators, RSI and MACD. This is very unusual, and the upside breakout pointed to by the green arrow, is a very bullish signal.



This last chart compares HUI gold stocks to XOI oil stocks. The trend from March till July favored oil stocks. Then in July, the trend turned in favor of gold stocks again. This trend is now well established, having moved back above the 200DMA (solid red line). The two supporting indicators are positive (blue dashed lines). This tells us that, while oil is rising, pulling oil stocks up along with it, gold stocks can be expected to rise even faster.

Summary: The signs are pointing to much higher gold and silver prices, this is most likely the start of our annual “Christmas rally”. Now, if gold should drop five or ten dollars, caused by an attempt on the part of traders who are short, (to force the market down so they can cover their short positions), don’t send me your Emails, telling me I was wrong, instead get in there and buy! Don’t miss this train!

Trust the fundamentals, and trust the technical analysis that backs it up.
 By bluejay

09/27/2007  8:22PM

In world markets tonight gold is trading at about $738.
 By bluejay

09/27/2007  6:15PM

Rick

I forgot to thank you for your kind words.

By reading Jim Sinclair you will receive the best possible
financial education. On Jim's site Monty Guild and Dan Norcini are contributors. These are very smart people. Monty is in Asia now scoping out things and has been reporting from there. Monty is one smart cookie. Dan knows markets inside and out.

I hope, someday, your jsmineset.com education and desire to learn the truth will provide you with a comfortable amount of financial knowledge and security.

Good luck buddy!
 By bluejay

09/27/2007  1:11PM

Gold $733.80
Silver $13.48
Gold Silver/Ratio 54.44
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.39

An informative article today on the Fed at jsmineset.com.

John M. Berry at Bloomberg writes an article entitled, Greenspan says "Pending Tsunami" May Hurt Fed.
 By Michael Miller

09/26/2007  2:01PM

The Economist rarely has a gold article. The Sept 15-21 issue has one on page 90 entitled “The bear’s lair”. Actual quotes are:

1. Gold can still be hammered into pretty shapes and worn around the neck to impress the neighbors;
2. Lead has outperformed gold over the past two years, which might be some comfort to alchemists staring at pools of molten metal that stubbornly refuse to transmute.
3. Goldman expects the price of gold to move to $725 per troy ounce over the next year or so.

The article also has a cartoon type colored insert that says, “Sack the alchemist”. Isn’t this a cute story? But is it a story that the venerable Economist should place before its readers?

The article ends like this. “The wedding season (India), which comes after the monsoon, is just around the corner. Lots of shiny things will be expected as part of the dowry.

Now to offer a little insight, the article reports that, “New sources of demand have appeared. Central banks in the Middle East and Russia are building their own gold reserves. Gold bugs are watching to see if the Chinese central bank does the same”.

This last statement confirms the belief that main line financiers pay no attention to gold. It is only those darn gold bugs that watch the market.

Oh, gold broke $730 shortly after the magazine was delivered.
 By Rick

09/25/2007  9:34PM

Bluejay, specifics on the referred web-sites you cite are major help, as well as your insight.

You've added another missing link to my old-time notion that "weak dollar = stronger gold"....of course it's not that simple, as current trends point out when analyzed with a bit of scutiny. Perhaps such was the case at one point, but with a broader perspective a more complex picture emerges.

Bluejay, the references are extremely valuable, as is your tenacity to refer. Thanks
 By bluejay

09/25/2007  6:10PM

Gold $730.70
Silver $13.43
Gold/Silver Ratio 54.41
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.35

Rick

Didn't mean to confuse anyone.

The bottom line is the Fed has to create continuing large sums of currency to prevent financial institutions in this country from going bankrupt and thus upsetting commerce.

The reason for this is that financial instruments called OTC derivatives are melting down with the lack of performance by the seller causing a strain on the system. You can follow all this along with getting a high caliber top notch education by reading jsmineset.com daily.

Since being educated some more at jsmineset I have been taught that it is important to assess a mining company's financials before you recommend it or buy it yourself. In particular, do they have any non-recourse loans on any of their projects or properties. If the borrower for the project doesn't meet obligations of the loan requirements the lender can take the project or property from the company and only the specified project or property and nothing else.

Each gold stock will be a case by case study. This is the reason I don't mention so many individual mining stocks or gold stocks as a group much anymore. Many people who buy gold stocks don't care about non-recouse loans or, probably, don't even know that they exist. Many gold companies with project loans don't even know if they have them or not, believe it or not.

If a company is borrowing from a bank or another financial institution the lender will require you to sell part of the future production. In this case, gold.

The risk is as gold goes higher the project borrower is getting closer to turning over the project or property to the lender. The safest way to secure needed funds is to exchange them for treasury stock or give the lender a royalty on the project.

Royal Gold as a lender did this kind of deal on a particular transaction with High River Gold on one of their projects in west Africa. I believe, when the loan is paid off in specific ounces of gold, Royal Gold will still maintain a small royalty for the mine's life. As a royalty company, Royal Gold benefits the most when gold rises. To my knowledge, Royal Gold does not have any non-recourse paper.

Global trends are such that world holders of the U.S. dollar are reducing their positions plus companys and foreign governments are preferring to take payment in Euros.

Some people feel that gold is not in a bull market. They say that gold in the benefactor of the U.S. dollar's bear market.

Gold's trend will definitely be bullish, aside from the dollar's weakness, with more OTC derivative failures.

The newspapers don't even call them derivatives so much anymore, they call them structured financial products.
 By Rick

09/22/2007  8:37PM

Bluejay, a bit confusing, but perhaps because it all is so inter-twined.

Can you help me distinguish the last year's entries touting investing into the coming gold advance with you last warning?

I have no clue. Alhough, I am going to the web-site you suggest for clarification.

Personally, I find it better to try to locate gold myself. That's why I'm tiny-small potatoes.

to wit: all gold value, no matter where found or held, is currently exploding in terms of dollars, yet the dollar is becoming a weak beak.

I guess I need a local-type-home-grown-perspective : how to put into perspective global trends while we here at home maintain a position of optimism.
 By bluejay

09/20/2007  8:43PM

Gold $735.40
Silver $13.47
Gold/Silver Ratio 54.60
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.27

The news is all bad.

The Fed is burning our money and will continue to burn it to protect the big money interests in this country with no end in sight. The Fed is bad news for the common man.

There will be no financial future for the common man as long as the Fed exists. You can take that to the bank if in the future some are still open.

The next big move on stocks will be in the companies that install safes in people's homes. All valuables and stock certificates should now be in personal safes and not in safety deposit boxes of financial institutions.

The financial instruments called derivatives are going to bring financial choas upon us. It is all starting to happen now which is not really being reported in the general media.

The excessive printing of money by the Fed to bail out Wall Street interests will make gold skyrocket in the many many months ahead and cause unbelievable inflation.

Gold may be vulnerable to fast sell offs engineered by our representatives but these declines will only be temporary as they have been before.

Seize weakness in the gold market as a golden opportunity to exchange your fiat money for more gold coins and some silver ones, too.

We are at the very beginning of historical times that will financially destroy the lives of many. Holding gold is a way to protect your family and its wealth.

You can be updated to events as they unfold on a daily basis at http://www.jsmineset.com.
 By martin newkom

08/29/2007  8:37AM

Yes, we must remember our lower
division economics subject which we can look back on now
with things "boiling". The
most vital elements could be
monetary policy used by the
Federal Reserve and Fiscal
policy which can be exercised
by the Federal Gov't. We feel
the effects more from the latter than from the former
the Gov't raises and lowers
taxes which hits our wallets
most directly. The former method requires some explaining
which is too involved for this discussion.
 By Michael Miller

08/28/2007  5:27PM

I truly appreciate the recent discussion about banks, dollars and related areas. My father had an attorney friend, Bob Thurn of Auburn, who thought the Fed Reserve acted in a surreptitious manner. This was in the 1950’s. I enjoyed listening to their conversations as a boy of 12 to 15 years old. Bob was definitely in the minority. Even then most people did not care about such a cerebral topic. The mystery remains today.

A lot of the old fashioned gold bugs of the 1970’s wrote about dollars, money, gold, Fort Knox, central banks and the Fed Reserve. There is quite a bit of history available on the subject, but who really knows. Has Fort Knox or the Fed banks undergone financial audits? If so, is the information public? Do many care today to understand US and international currency evaluations?

I cannot offer much without some research. My library has numerous books on gold currency and banking. My great grandfather and great-great grandfather, Henry and Frank Miller, were bankers with the D.O. Mills bank in Sacramento in the 1800’s. They both signed the bank’s notes or money. Banking was much simpler then than now.

As far as conspiratorial theories, they may not apply to the banks. As far as manipulation or concealed consensus in the banking field, the word oligopoly pops into my mind. We studied it in Economics 1A, and the definition may apply to the banks: a form of monopoly in which the effective control of a market is exercised by a limited number of competitive sellers. I do know that it takes more dollars (Federal Reserve notes) to buy an ounce of gold today than it did fifty years ago.
 By bluejay

08/27/2007  7:48PM

Gold $666.40
Silver $11.76
Gold/Silver Ratio 56.67
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.88

Dick,

Thanks for the tips.

The banks just probably changed their names with the backers remaining the same. This happens all the time in the furniture busines following the big close out sales. I'm sure they just didn't sell their shares and get into something else.

Banking is a great business to make money in. When you make mistakes in lending or in becoming a party to a drivatives contract the central bank(Fed) will always bail you out at the expense to the public practically every time.

"The Fed makes people poor" -Ferdinand Lips

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