July 5, 2022 

Gold Enters Major Bull Market


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 By Michael Miller

05/19/2016  8:07PM

Someone asked me today about the drop in price of gold spot. Pundits say: weaker oil and metal prices put pressure on commodities; concern that US interest rates would be raised; china growth and economy; stronger dollar; violence in Africa; declining interest in stock market. On and on it goes.

Blabber about gold price usually comes from people wishing an increase or people wishing a fall in the price.

What I took from the “big” drop today only means to me that people are manipulating it instead of leaving gold alone. The best person on this web site for understanding or at least familiar with charts and trends is BLUEJAY. Because I am in the gold producing business the spot price interests me; however at the same time it means very little in how I behave. We sell gold when we have it and need dollars. Pretty simple, isn’t it! There were more sellers than buyers to explain yesterday's decline.
 By Michael Miller

01/03/2016  12:44PM

Nicely stated, Bluejay. If this is the gold bear market, I am very pleased with gold over $1,000 an ounce.

One thing you may know but have not touched is the fact that there are less small gold companies in business than during the last bull market. Supply and demand never leave an economic analysis.
 By bluejay

01/03/2016  9:51AM

I believe we must focus on the facts that the dollar has been rising and gold has been falling. No one knows with certainty when these established trends might change, folks can only guess.

In sizing up suspected trend changes one must understand the resource of their past failures and be able to apply that knowledge. The gold newsletter writers travel on a one war street for the most part and never seem to learn. Beware of these people.

Although as irresponsible as they may have been, costing some investors a great deal of their wealth, these morons stand the chance of being right in a short period of time ahead, just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, if they're still around.

IMO, we are entering an approaching phase transition where a flash crash in the general averages could develop(with much higher all-time highs to follow) along with the gold shares following suit in preparation for their final lows(some have already bottomed) while driving the last remaining sheep over the cliff. This, IMO, will be the long awaited beginning of the next intermediate uptrend within Gold's Current Long Term Bull Market.

Am I dreaming? "Time and Tide waits for no man." Our power is dry and the finger is on the trigger.
 By bluejay

01/03/2016  9:31AM

I believe we must focus on the facts that the dollar has been rising and gold has been falling. No one knows with certainty when these established trends might change, folks can only guess.

In sizing up suspected trend changes one must understand the resource of their past failures and be able to apply that knowledge. The gold newsletter writers travel on a one war street for the most part and never seem to learn. Beware of these people.

Although as irresponsible as they may have been, costing some investors a great deal of their wealth, these morons stand the chance of being right just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, if they're still around.
 By Michael Miller

12/29/2015  3:28PM

Gold Investing has many news publications. Some are really good and beneficial. Many are poor and beneficial for different reasons. Most encourage the purchase of gold or stocks. I have been reading them since I entered this industry in 1974. At that time the best information came from South Africa. Once the United States government lifted the price controls and ownership restrictions on gold, the domestic gold advisers and newsletters grew like weeds in the Spring. I continue my interest in gold information. The junior mining market has a very small following. There are fewer survivors left mining and most are without production than years ago. Most are touting how the permit process is favorably moving along. A minority are drilling and touting interesting numbers without any explanation about how it will turn the gold potential in the ground into money let alone profitable money. This is not new. It has existed for forty years. It is also not just in the gold industry.

The following information came across my email today. These are from Presidents and Directors in the junior company class. I’ll summarize for you.

The year is nearly over, and at this point it’s no secret that 2015 hasn’t been great for the gold price. While it nearly breached the $1,300-per-ounce mark in January, by midway through December it was down about 10 percent year-to-date.

Despite the current weakness in gold and other metals, I expect gold, and silver in particular, will rebound by mid-year 2016, with investor sentiment following, first into the major producers and trickling down to the juniors. By the end of 2016 I anticipate a much stronger market if for no other reason than there will likely be far fewer junior companies remaining.

2016 looks like it could be another difficult year for the gold market. The main issue continues to be the strength in the US dollar, and any weakness there would certainly be positive for gold. Some encouraging signs do exist as overall demand for metals continues to be healthy and producers have made strides reducing costs. Also, we have seen some of the required mergers and a reduction in the overall number of companies. In general, I see the gold market staying the same for much of the year with some modest recovery from the current level.

The early part of the year should be optimistic as usual, with gold and credible, quality miners (producers) seeing a good lift after tax loss season. The market should continue to improve for miners since so many companies have gone under or delisted, lessening the pool of potential investment choices for investors pulling money out from the overvalued broad markets

Investors need to focus on companies working on appropriate deposits, and investors and analysts need to be aware that “losing it on grade, but making it up on volume” never did and never will work. The ultra-large, high-capex, low-grade deposits and analysts that sold these to the public are as much to blame for the massive losses in the markets and the current investor sentiment.

I think it is very important to stress the cyclical nature of the gold market. Gold and metals prices in general will recover, and what investors need to look for are companies that are positioning themselves to benefit when the recovery starts to happen. It is very difficult to not only survive, but continue to be active under the current conditions.

Gold has always been there, through dynasties and civilizations, and continues to be a constant in our world today. With inflation kept artificially low, along with interest rates, it’s only a matter of time that faith in US dollar dissipates; we are already seeing evidence of that with China becoming a powerhouse in the world.
 By bluejay

08/03/2015  3:52PM

Post navigation← PreviousNext →
Gold: How High is High?
Posted on August 3, 2015 by Martin Armstrong


Mr. Armstrong;

Your timing has been incredible. It is becoming clear that your forecasts are time and price which are separate. You have opened my eyes to a whole new way to observing the world. Do you think gold will still reach $5,000 after 2016?

Thanks so much


ANSWER: Yes, but as I have stated before, $5,000 is the extreme maximum target – not the minimum. I do not see any possibility of $30,000 or some other outrageous forecast. Even reaching $5,000 will not be easy, and we have to be concerned that they could simply declare gold illegal as they did in 1934. Government would not necessarily travel door to door to confiscate gold. Instead, they would are likely to employ the same tactic as used the past – outlawing transactions in gold to avoid taxes, which might even include Bitcoin. That would set the stage for the confiscation of any asset that avoids taxation, a crime they now call money laundering with a sentence of up to 20 years in prison. This is all about them – not you. They will never print their way out for their benefactors would not lend them money under that scenario. Hedge funds demand Draconian measures that a deflationary, as they are doing to Puerto Rico and Argentina. They do not care that society will not function under austerity because they want their profits.

Such schemes against tax avoidance would not be merely a target against gold alone. It would be against anything taking place in a tax-exempt atmosphere. This posture would have the effect of shutting down gold futures, which would really screw the mines for they would be unable to hedge. Not to mention, if gold were illegal, who will buy the gold? So making gold illegal would result in a lot of problems. That does not put it past these people who may be trying some sort of scheme. However, this reflects the problems we face as government acts irrationally while trying to maintain control and power, rather than reform. This is the meltdown phase of governments for they cannot look at the long-term. There is no way out of this mess without a full-blown restructure, but that is a loss of power and they will never willingly do such a thing. They will kick and scream all the way.

Gold should test the $2300 level, which is about the 1980 high adjusted for inflation. That target would appear to be the minimum. That requires, of course, maintaining a free market. We will not have the precise target for a high until we achieve the final low and see the Reversals generated from that low. So anything else is speculation rather than a forecast. We still expect the low to form on the Benchmarks as of now.

Of course, the gold promoters will try to convince people that demand for physical gold will rise and that somehow will save the day. This is more of a sign that the low is not yet in place. What causes the rally from the low is its short-covering, NOT a rise in demand. Likewise, at the top, it is running out of fresh buyers who produce the high. You must exhaust the buyers to create the high and exhaust the shorts to create the low.

I still recommend REAL gold coins – not bullion bars or restrikes. Keep away from rare dates and stay with common grade U.S. $20 gold pieces or $10 and $5. You want coins that can at least be considered a collector’s item. Stay far away from high grade and rare dates. Also, be careful that the premium for newly minted gold coins, as well as silver, will rise as the price declines. This is people trying to make up for losses. Those premiums will decline at the top in prices and widen as prices decline.
 By bluejay

07/30/2015  10:40AM

Gold $1089.20 OFF $$7.70
Silver $14.73 OFF $ 0.08

Gold's 5000 day moving average is still ascending and in the vicinity of $800 plus. In my opinion. the metal remains in a bull market. The decline from above $1,900 is no more than an intermediate term scary reaction. As every day goes by, we are nearing the ultimate reaction low of this phase.

Some words from Martin Armstrong:

The Supply Side of Gold
Posted on July 30, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

A gold standard has never worked for one primary reason: the “money supply” cannot increase based upon economic conditions or politicians, rather it can increase due to new discoveries. This introduces the same flow concerned fiat money. The 19th century was plagued by the gold discoveries in California, Alaska, and Australia. Likewise, the discovery of gold in South America by the Spanish created massive inflation in Europe during the 16th century. The idea that gold provides some tangible value for money is absurd, for it has always risen and fallen in value based upon market conditions. Gold would no more provide a check against inflation than paper money. The only way to provide a stable money supply is to eliminate career politicians and stop the borrowing by government

Well, when it rains, it pours. In the Sudan, a large discovery of gold amounting to 43 tons has occurred, an amount expected to rise to 80 tons by the end of 2015, which is equivalent to a market value estimate of $2,555,262,400 if the market stays the same. The entire U.S. gold reserve is 8,000 tons. So, we are talking about a sizable discovery in the Sudan. The Sudanese government anticipates mining an additional 100 tons of gold in 2016.

From a supply-demand perspective, this could crush gold psychologically. In the long run, it will only have an impact when demand lags. It all depends upon the cost of production. When the monetary system cracks, that will be the focus. The markets will cherry-pick the news for that is always what they do.

The likelihood of the dollar collapsing is at zero right now. The crisis is manifesting in Europe first. The dollar will be driven higher as capital seeks to get off the grid and hide. The U.S. debt of $18 trillion is still a tiny fraction of the near $160 trillion in total world debt. It’s all a matter of perspective. Simply put, gold will rally ONLY when the stage is set. It will rise to the monetary crisis in the future – not right now.
 By bluejay

07/23/2015  9:06PM

Live Spot Gold
closes in 17 hrs. 15 mins.
Jul 24, 2015 00:00 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1083.40/1084.40
Low/High 1076.70 / 1106.50
Change -7.00 -0.64%
30daychg -91.60 -7.80%
1yearchg -210.50 -16.27%

The intermediate down phase continues.

The time and price destination to the final low has not yet been determined by Martin Armstrong.

$1000 gold will break according to him.

In some years following the upcoming bottom gold will reach to the $5000 area.
The bottom is just months away, prepare yourselves.
 By bluejay

07/07/2015  1:20PM

Gold $1154.50 OFF $15.30
Silver $15.05 OFF $0.70

Aside from all the gold bugs positive comments concerning gold, the metal is still being contained within its bearish intermediate trend. Gold bottoms out when it becomes a dirty word in the press.
 By bluejay

06/16/2015  7:56AM

Gold $1177.80 OFF $8.40
Silver $15.925 OFF $0.145

Metals Still Pointing Down
Posted on June 16, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
SVNYNF-M 6-15-2015

The precious metals are still pointing lower into our Benchmark targets. Indeed, the hunt for money by government is becoming so severe we may see the second Benchmark complete the decline rather than the first. So be prepared for that development. The hedge funds are starting to sell again keeping in sync with the charts. Our Energy Models are still negative on the monthly level.

Silver has held the Break-Line Channel for now, but critical support lies at the $12 level. A monthly closing below that will be the final signal that the extreme targets we provided in the the International Precious Metals Report will most likely be seen before this bear market is complete. So nothing has changed to alter those forecasts.
 By bluejay

05/28/2015  10:41AM

Nice to hear what the brokerage firms and banks think of gold. It would be nice just once if someone had the balls to see the truth and report it.

In my opinion what's happening with the thought process in the banks, mostly, it that get the public in again, what's left of buyers with cash, and then pull the plug on them, it's an old game.

Gold is not yet ready for prime time according to Martin Armstrong and his computer, Socrates. The day is coming within months that gold will break 1,000 but it will only be a temporary event. This is when the metal gets jump started to make new highs. It's called, the public must first be cleaned out.

And the real reason gold moves from that suspected low is presented in the following article by Martin Armstrong:

Gold – the Hedge Against Government
Posted on May 28, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
US$20Gold-pile(picture could not be transferred)

I have stated countless time that gold is NOT the hedge against inflation, hyperinflation, the anti-fiat antagonist against the dollar, or manipulation that keeps gold down; paper gold suppresses the price, and anything of the sort that amounts to promotions or excuses. Gold has followed the deflationary trend in commodities, if you haven’t paid attention to oil, and money supply is not a one-to-one relationship with inflation, for this is a global economy driven by CONFIDENCE. All of that nonsense is pure BULLSHIT, to state it bluntly.

Every single one of those sales promotions are meaningless and most manipulations in metals have been to the upside to entice the unsuspecting to rush in and buy every single high before they crash it. This has been going on since the 1970s. I knew the Hunt brothers in the early 1970s. They became a household name when the promoters exposed them to for convincing people that they would see $100 silver, so buy now at $50.

All of these promotions existed for the 19-year decline from 1980 to 1999. They roll them out to dupe people into buying every rally and these same people pretend analysts are selling gold, which is a conflict of interest. Come on. Today there are more regulations to protect the public when buying a used car than there is for gold.

I am not selling gold. There is ALWAYS a time to BUY and there will be a time to SELL. Sorry, I am a trader first and foremost. Gold is the hedge against government. The low in terms of dollars is still probably not in place. Keep in mind that we may see a major rally in the dollar and that will help gold decline in dollars.


NEVERTHELESS, that is the TRADING view. Gold from the hedging perspective may have lost its movability. This will have some dampening effect in price long-term. However, if we are talking about trading, then there may be better opportunities than gold. Perhaps the way to make gold movable again is for everyone to start wearing “bling-bling” as they call it, perhaps 2-ounce wedding rings are in order.

If we are talking about hedging, then yes you should have some common gold coins or jewelry. Where to store them is another whole problem. So we are not talking about trading in this context. They are moving rapidly to shutdown paper currency for they see this as the only way to prevent a bank meltdown. Their solution is to collect all the taxes they ever dreamed of to prevent anyone from buying or selling without government approval, using terrorism and drug dealers as the prime excuse. Of course, how are the police going to make money? When I landed in Poland, big signs at the airport declared it was illegal to carry ANYTHING worth more than €10,000. This is going to be a very questionable future we face.

I remain skeptical that these people can hold on to power, for we may be facing a serious political meltdown come 2016 into 2017. Gold is the hedge against government, not fiat or inflation. In this context, coins of common date will be the best rather than bars. Of course, you may not be able to leave your home.

We cannot stop what is coming; we have to crash and burn. We are in a battle for our freedom and that of our children. This is the only reason I have not run off to a beach and retired. What about my own posterity? While the crash and burn is inevitable, perhaps we can reduce the pain if we push back when the time comes and prevent the complete loss of all rights, privileges, and immunities, which America once embodied in our Constitution, securing the right of citizens to travel from one state to another was already protected by the Privileges and Immunities clause.
 By Michael Miller

03/28/2015  4:53PM

Morgan Stanley’s gold price prediction in 2015 is at $1,185.

CPM Group sees the price of gold falling for a third year in a row in 2015. It expects the average at $1,208.

MacNeil Curry, head of global technical analysis at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, sees gold perhaps reaching $1,300.
 By bluejay

01/24/2015  2:58PM

Gold $1294.10 Off $8.00
Silver $18.29 Off $0.02
US Dollar 94.99 Unch.

According to the analyst, Marin Armstrong, the world is at the beginning of a war cycle and shortly, will be at the beginning of a world sovereign debt crisis as well as entering a cycle of trading in public debt for private debt. Otherwise, we are at the very beginning of witnessing the bond bubble burst. So, how does all this all relate to gold?

The metal's current intermediate down phase continues with recent short term strength being generated by folks in Europe looking for a safer home for their wealth. Sure, most of the international flows have headed into dollar related assets with some spillover entering the gold and silver markets. The Greek election is next week and if the anti-austerity vote wins, there could be more turmoil in the Euro possibly pushing gold higher.

The folks in Brussels are a bunch of morons. They are day by day making economic fools of themselves insuring that the European states suffer. It is so bad that the cost of their labor is twice the amount in the U.S. It is just a matter of time until the EURO sinks lower with more money pouring into the US.

It is still possible that the big shake out in the gold market is waiting to happen? This could easily happen with a strong move in the stock market accompanied by a collapsing bond market as folks might not trust gold like they used to. People love to chase higher prices when the tide comes in but mainly will avoid depressed sectors.

Fundamentals would suggest gold will continue rising but the most sophisticated computer in the world, Socrates, says, the bottom is not yet in.
 By bluejay

01/18/2015  10:17AM

add to the end of the previous article:

keeps rising in cost.
 By bluejay

01/18/2015  10:13AM

More Unsettled Times Ahead Likely To Benefit Gold

Martin Armstrong

The next crisis will be the currency pegs against the dollar. Here we have pegs from Hong Kong to the Middle East. We will have the same problem for as the dollar is driven higher, thanks to the implosion in the Euroland, these nations will import DEFLATION from a rising dollar. This will break their backs and force pegs to collapse around the world. Keep in mind that this will unfold probably after 2015.75 and help to spiral the world economy into the worst depression in centuries. Start preparing for a rainy day.

These idiots are raising taxes when they should be lowering them as even Keynes suggested. Unfortunately, we are in a major crisis because of their insane mismanagement of the economy. There is nothing they will not steal. They are the type of people who are pocketing soap on the cart of the maid as they leave the hotel room. This level of corruption is turning into a feeding frenzy, which is our doom.

The rise in the dollar, will be the key to breaking the post-war economy. It was the flight of capital from Euroland into the Swiss that broke that peg. We will see in the months ahead the same crisis unfold in the Middle East and in Asia. This will be accelerated by the emerging economies who have issued $6 trillion in dollar debt since 2007. As the dollar rises, they will be forced into the same position as Greece – unable to pay their debts because the debt
 By bluejay

01/17/2015  6:42PM

Hi Mike and others.

The Swiss peg to the Euro was costing the Swiss central bank untold millions, so they broke free of it. Lagarde of the IMF acted surprised and was unhappy the Swiss didn't inform her prior to the break. Why should they have done it? They were losing millions buying the Euro and she probably would have told them not to do it. Looking ahead, Brussels has no clue on holding the Euro together. Expect Greece to soon pull out of the Euro putting more pressure on their currency while bringing in more gold buyers looking for safety.

Accorded to a noted analyst, Martin Armstrong, when his predicted Big Bang takes place at the end of September 2015, it's every man for himself.

We have just entered a period of upheaval that will only keep building in intensity accompanied with increased market volatility, be prepared for wide swinging markets, including the precious metals.

Gold closed Friday at $1280.30 breaking upwards through its 200 day moving average line which is positive, short term. While the intermediate trend remains trending lower, hopefully, this recent short term upward move can aid in turning the trend in force. The conservative approach would tend to command respect for the possibilities of new lower lows ahead during months ahead.

Gold stocks could be entering a short term bubble of strength, beware.
 By Michael Miller

01/16/2015  12:26PM

Yesterday, I was driving in my truck and switched the radio on. A business discussion was taking place between the host and a guest speaker. The speaker told that a major financial situation just broke. The Swiss National Bank announced its decision to remove a cap on the Swiss franc.

The surprise move, which essentially decouples the currency from the euro, sent the euro and dollar dropping against the Swiss franc, and has boosted demand for gold as a safe haven.

The discussion and ramifications with global markets was very interesting but I had arrived at my destination so left the truck. I expected to hear much more on subsequent news programs and newspapers. There was nothing. I don’t know what to make of this lack of interest but apparently it spurred the gold market to move to $1,261.38 an ounce. I like any number over $1,000.

12/19/2014  9:16AM

Howdy Bluejay!

It seems that the Hedge Fund Managers agree with you. Here's the title of a recent article in Mining.com.

Compared to December 2013, bullish bets by large speculators in gold futures are three times higher going into 2015. "This time around (compared to this time last year) the bearish exposure is currently only 3.8 million ounces and if we add the gross longs we find that the net position in the market is currently 10.5 million ounces long. So there's a lot of money betting gold will go up in 2015. The entire article can be found at:


Aloha and Happy Holidays!! Ron
 By bluejay

10/13/2014  11:00PM

The proven fact is that gold goes up when the consensus distrusts government as a result of continuing failures to manage their affairs. People are very slow to get the big picture until they start suffering from the misgivings of government where they can't deny it anymore with the growing difficulty in feeding their families.

The following is just the beginning of the energy that will restart gold's bull run, sadly as people suffer.

French Government on Brink of Collapse

Posted on October 14, 2014 by Martin Armstrong


French President François Hollande has brought his country to ruin and threatens to bring down Euroland with him. His insane budget plans have been admitted cannot possibly meet EU rules before 2017 and even that assumes some recovery. Meanwhile, Hollande has lost his last government partner. The PRG chief Jean-Michel Baylet on Sunday evening on television, announced that his small center-left party PRG will terminate the alliance with the Socialists. Prime Minister Manuel Valls has stated that if the tax burden on the middle class in the draft budget 2015 is not reduced, the party will abandon the Socialists and withdraw its three ministers. Hollande’s term runs until 2017.

These people cannot grasp that raising taxes is not the way to stimulate an economy. They people should spend their own money – politicians only confiscate and then spend according to their self-interest. Sorry – it just does not work.
 By bluejay

09/18/2014  1:44PM

Time for an update:

$1224.10 OFF $11.50

From experience, I feed on pessimism.

The short and intermediate trends remain
bearish, although the long term remains bullish. The critical area for the long term to turn bearish is the breaking of the $800 to $900 area.

The public continues their sporadic selling which is normal during down phases. Usually, the public doesn't have a clue. I am awaiting a mini smash in gold prices, possibly into the $1000 area, before I dump my airlines and rail shares. The stock market made, again, a new all-time high

The stock market may have another 100% left in it but if gold gets into the $1000 area it could easily be a five-bagger.

Everything is timing.

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