October 25, 2021 

Gold Enters Major Bull Market


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 By bluejay

05/24/2016  4:36AM


Your reference to history seems quite in order. Thank you for your submission.

Yes, when it comes to government being pushed into a financial corner anything is possible. Roosevelt was a coin collector. If history repeats itself it may be OK to hold collection coins more than bars and the bullion coins and the bullion jewelry. Government appears certainly moving in that direction as holding gold in safety deposits boxes is now considered money laundering by them.

Here are some of today's comments by Martin Armstrong:

When you introduce a collapse in confidence in government, people no longer “feel” secure and they hoard even the based currency. This is why we find so many hoards of debased Roman currency during the chaotic 3rd century.

It is a curious paradox. Right now people are hoarding, as are the banks and corporations. It is hard to hoard paper currency for you will not be able to distinguish between old and new. This means that the hoarding will migrate to tangible assets, shares, gold, silver, and antiquities.

Are folks putting scared money into the gold shares for safety? It would seem so, as the great advance in past months just might indicate a change in thinking. Gold has advanced only 20% from its recent lows while the shares are up many times more versus the metal's achievement.

The shares are not yet into a major bull market but recent technical bullish preparations appear to be getting it ready to do so. Of course, when this takes place is another question.
 By Hans Kummerow

05/23/2016  12:11AM

If governments become as desperate as Bluejay expects they will, it may be wise to reread Presidential Order 6102 signed by President Roosevelt in 1933.

Read the wording on the Internet and decide afterwords whether you want to own gold bars, gold coins or plain old gold juwelry.
 By bluejay

05/22/2016  7:57AM

A Growing Case For Gold and Gold Related Companies

Posted May 21, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Rock Hard Place

The Fed is between a rock and a hard place and is trying to be that little flower that sees the light. It has two choices: (1) deal with the pension crisis at home by raising rates to prevent defaults, or (2) keep rates low to save other governments in emerging markets who continue to borrow and are doomed anyhow. Then there is the question of whether the budget deficit in the USA will explode with rising rates.

The Fed has really lost control of the economy, but the mainstream still needs to figure this out. Our model goes nuts from 2018 into 2020. This is part of the peak in 2015.75. Of course, the general public does not see this yet. They should by next year and then the game will change.
Quiet-into-LightGovernments will not go quietly into the light. They will rage at every possible moment. They are moving toward electronic money since their solution is to force everyone to pay whatever tax they demand. On January 1, 2017, G20 will begin sharing info on everyone. Compliance in business will cost tens of billions of dollars alone. Even companies who do not have foreign clients will have to confirm they do not.

Naturally, governments will act in the most stupid manner for they will not reform. Even if they grab everything, it would not be enough to save them. So be prepared. They will get very punitive. Expect crazy laws to benefit them like constitutional amendments. They will find whatever excuse to confiscate assets; mere suspicion will become proof and it will be your burden to prove innocence.

The old guard is near death. People like John McCain and Barbara Boxer, who was shut down in California, are out the door. We are looking at new people coming to power — the changing of the guard. In this respect, Trump is part of the new and Hillary is the old world of corrupt politics. We are turning the corner. Those in government remain clueless.

What survives is always tangible assets be it land, industry, shares, or something of value like gold, silver, antiques, etc. Whatever currency we use is only a medium of exchange between tangible assets. Currency is not “money,” it never holds its value, and by no means is it a store of wealth. It is just a medium of exchange like a language. So whatever we end up with, which I believe there will be some basket of currencies, will become the new medium of exchange through which everything else if measured.
 By bluejay

05/20/2016  5:31PM


In September last year Barrick was below $6, now it's risen to just under $18 after its recent failure at $20. Now we hear Soros likes gold and especially Barrick? Where were these comments when the stock was below $10? My bet is that Soros has been a seller of the shares for a trade or was acquiring put options to protect his position,

I learned the hard way that agreeing with possible planted media releases here and there is not always a good thing.

Check out the NUGT Index that trades freely as representative of the major golds. It is my opinion that as long as it is below 100 the chances of Soros making money on Barrick over the short term are not appealing.

As long as gold remains under $1320, I sense its last move's momentum may have come to an end. Things are just not looking good for the precious metals at the moment. These moves go back and forth within major trends, The important aspect of gold's future is it continues to be in a major bull market going into 13 years now. No matter how scary declines may be, and especially that drop from from $1900, it will always be in the favor of the steadied nerved folks to scale down buying when these movements take place.

05/19/2016  10:00PM

Someone is confident in gold's future:

Billionaire Soros scoops up $264 million stake in world’s largest gold miner

Fund now owns a 1.7% stake in Canada's Barrick Gold.
 By Michael Miller

05/19/2016  8:07PM

Someone asked me today about the drop in price of gold spot. Pundits say: weaker oil and metal prices put pressure on commodities; concern that US interest rates would be raised; china growth and economy; stronger dollar; violence in Africa; declining interest in stock market. On and on it goes.

Blabber about gold price usually comes from people wishing an increase or people wishing a fall in the price.

What I took from the “big” drop today only means to me that people are manipulating it instead of leaving gold alone. The best person on this web site for understanding or at least familiar with charts and trends is BLUEJAY. Because I am in the gold producing business the spot price interests me; however at the same time it means very little in how I behave. We sell gold when we have it and need dollars. Pretty simple, isn’t it! There were more sellers than buyers to explain yesterday's decline.
 By Michael Miller

01/03/2016  12:44PM

Nicely stated, Bluejay. If this is the gold bear market, I am very pleased with gold over $1,000 an ounce.

One thing you may know but have not touched is the fact that there are less small gold companies in business than during the last bull market. Supply and demand never leave an economic analysis.
 By bluejay

01/03/2016  9:51AM

I believe we must focus on the facts that the dollar has been rising and gold has been falling. No one knows with certainty when these established trends might change, folks can only guess.

In sizing up suspected trend changes one must understand the resource of their past failures and be able to apply that knowledge. The gold newsletter writers travel on a one war street for the most part and never seem to learn. Beware of these people.

Although as irresponsible as they may have been, costing some investors a great deal of their wealth, these morons stand the chance of being right in a short period of time ahead, just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, if they're still around.

IMO, we are entering an approaching phase transition where a flash crash in the general averages could develop(with much higher all-time highs to follow) along with the gold shares following suit in preparation for their final lows(some have already bottomed) while driving the last remaining sheep over the cliff. This, IMO, will be the long awaited beginning of the next intermediate uptrend within Gold's Current Long Term Bull Market.

Am I dreaming? "Time and Tide waits for no man." Our power is dry and the finger is on the trigger.
 By bluejay

01/03/2016  9:31AM

I believe we must focus on the facts that the dollar has been rising and gold has been falling. No one knows with certainty when these established trends might change, folks can only guess.

In sizing up suspected trend changes one must understand the resource of their past failures and be able to apply that knowledge. The gold newsletter writers travel on a one war street for the most part and never seem to learn. Beware of these people.

Although as irresponsible as they may have been, costing some investors a great deal of their wealth, these morons stand the chance of being right just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, if they're still around.
 By Michael Miller

12/29/2015  3:28PM

Gold Investing has many news publications. Some are really good and beneficial. Many are poor and beneficial for different reasons. Most encourage the purchase of gold or stocks. I have been reading them since I entered this industry in 1974. At that time the best information came from South Africa. Once the United States government lifted the price controls and ownership restrictions on gold, the domestic gold advisers and newsletters grew like weeds in the Spring. I continue my interest in gold information. The junior mining market has a very small following. There are fewer survivors left mining and most are without production than years ago. Most are touting how the permit process is favorably moving along. A minority are drilling and touting interesting numbers without any explanation about how it will turn the gold potential in the ground into money let alone profitable money. This is not new. It has existed for forty years. It is also not just in the gold industry.

The following information came across my email today. These are from Presidents and Directors in the junior company class. I’ll summarize for you.

The year is nearly over, and at this point it’s no secret that 2015 hasn’t been great for the gold price. While it nearly breached the $1,300-per-ounce mark in January, by midway through December it was down about 10 percent year-to-date.

Despite the current weakness in gold and other metals, I expect gold, and silver in particular, will rebound by mid-year 2016, with investor sentiment following, first into the major producers and trickling down to the juniors. By the end of 2016 I anticipate a much stronger market if for no other reason than there will likely be far fewer junior companies remaining.

2016 looks like it could be another difficult year for the gold market. The main issue continues to be the strength in the US dollar, and any weakness there would certainly be positive for gold. Some encouraging signs do exist as overall demand for metals continues to be healthy and producers have made strides reducing costs. Also, we have seen some of the required mergers and a reduction in the overall number of companies. In general, I see the gold market staying the same for much of the year with some modest recovery from the current level.

The early part of the year should be optimistic as usual, with gold and credible, quality miners (producers) seeing a good lift after tax loss season. The market should continue to improve for miners since so many companies have gone under or delisted, lessening the pool of potential investment choices for investors pulling money out from the overvalued broad markets

Investors need to focus on companies working on appropriate deposits, and investors and analysts need to be aware that “losing it on grade, but making it up on volume” never did and never will work. The ultra-large, high-capex, low-grade deposits and analysts that sold these to the public are as much to blame for the massive losses in the markets and the current investor sentiment.

I think it is very important to stress the cyclical nature of the gold market. Gold and metals prices in general will recover, and what investors need to look for are companies that are positioning themselves to benefit when the recovery starts to happen. It is very difficult to not only survive, but continue to be active under the current conditions.

Gold has always been there, through dynasties and civilizations, and continues to be a constant in our world today. With inflation kept artificially low, along with interest rates, it’s only a matter of time that faith in US dollar dissipates; we are already seeing evidence of that with China becoming a powerhouse in the world.
 By bluejay

08/03/2015  3:52PM

Post navigation← PreviousNext →
Gold: How High is High?
Posted on August 3, 2015 by Martin Armstrong


Mr. Armstrong;

Your timing has been incredible. It is becoming clear that your forecasts are time and price which are separate. You have opened my eyes to a whole new way to observing the world. Do you think gold will still reach $5,000 after 2016?

Thanks so much


ANSWER: Yes, but as I have stated before, $5,000 is the extreme maximum target – not the minimum. I do not see any possibility of $30,000 or some other outrageous forecast. Even reaching $5,000 will not be easy, and we have to be concerned that they could simply declare gold illegal as they did in 1934. Government would not necessarily travel door to door to confiscate gold. Instead, they would are likely to employ the same tactic as used the past – outlawing transactions in gold to avoid taxes, which might even include Bitcoin. That would set the stage for the confiscation of any asset that avoids taxation, a crime they now call money laundering with a sentence of up to 20 years in prison. This is all about them – not you. They will never print their way out for their benefactors would not lend them money under that scenario. Hedge funds demand Draconian measures that a deflationary, as they are doing to Puerto Rico and Argentina. They do not care that society will not function under austerity because they want their profits.

Such schemes against tax avoidance would not be merely a target against gold alone. It would be against anything taking place in a tax-exempt atmosphere. This posture would have the effect of shutting down gold futures, which would really screw the mines for they would be unable to hedge. Not to mention, if gold were illegal, who will buy the gold? So making gold illegal would result in a lot of problems. That does not put it past these people who may be trying some sort of scheme. However, this reflects the problems we face as government acts irrationally while trying to maintain control and power, rather than reform. This is the meltdown phase of governments for they cannot look at the long-term. There is no way out of this mess without a full-blown restructure, but that is a loss of power and they will never willingly do such a thing. They will kick and scream all the way.

Gold should test the $2300 level, which is about the 1980 high adjusted for inflation. That target would appear to be the minimum. That requires, of course, maintaining a free market. We will not have the precise target for a high until we achieve the final low and see the Reversals generated from that low. So anything else is speculation rather than a forecast. We still expect the low to form on the Benchmarks as of now.

Of course, the gold promoters will try to convince people that demand for physical gold will rise and that somehow will save the day. This is more of a sign that the low is not yet in place. What causes the rally from the low is its short-covering, NOT a rise in demand. Likewise, at the top, it is running out of fresh buyers who produce the high. You must exhaust the buyers to create the high and exhaust the shorts to create the low.

I still recommend REAL gold coins – not bullion bars or restrikes. Keep away from rare dates and stay with common grade U.S. $20 gold pieces or $10 and $5. You want coins that can at least be considered a collector’s item. Stay far away from high grade and rare dates. Also, be careful that the premium for newly minted gold coins, as well as silver, will rise as the price declines. This is people trying to make up for losses. Those premiums will decline at the top in prices and widen as prices decline.
 By bluejay

07/30/2015  10:40AM

Gold $1089.20 OFF $$7.70
Silver $14.73 OFF $ 0.08

Gold's 5000 day moving average is still ascending and in the vicinity of $800 plus. In my opinion. the metal remains in a bull market. The decline from above $1,900 is no more than an intermediate term scary reaction. As every day goes by, we are nearing the ultimate reaction low of this phase.

Some words from Martin Armstrong:

The Supply Side of Gold
Posted on July 30, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

A gold standard has never worked for one primary reason: the “money supply” cannot increase based upon economic conditions or politicians, rather it can increase due to new discoveries. This introduces the same flow concerned fiat money. The 19th century was plagued by the gold discoveries in California, Alaska, and Australia. Likewise, the discovery of gold in South America by the Spanish created massive inflation in Europe during the 16th century. The idea that gold provides some tangible value for money is absurd, for it has always risen and fallen in value based upon market conditions. Gold would no more provide a check against inflation than paper money. The only way to provide a stable money supply is to eliminate career politicians and stop the borrowing by government

Well, when it rains, it pours. In the Sudan, a large discovery of gold amounting to 43 tons has occurred, an amount expected to rise to 80 tons by the end of 2015, which is equivalent to a market value estimate of $2,555,262,400 if the market stays the same. The entire U.S. gold reserve is 8,000 tons. So, we are talking about a sizable discovery in the Sudan. The Sudanese government anticipates mining an additional 100 tons of gold in 2016.

From a supply-demand perspective, this could crush gold psychologically. In the long run, it will only have an impact when demand lags. It all depends upon the cost of production. When the monetary system cracks, that will be the focus. The markets will cherry-pick the news for that is always what they do.

The likelihood of the dollar collapsing is at zero right now. The crisis is manifesting in Europe first. The dollar will be driven higher as capital seeks to get off the grid and hide. The U.S. debt of $18 trillion is still a tiny fraction of the near $160 trillion in total world debt. It’s all a matter of perspective. Simply put, gold will rally ONLY when the stage is set. It will rise to the monetary crisis in the future – not right now.
 By bluejay

07/23/2015  9:06PM

Live Spot Gold
closes in 17 hrs. 15 mins.
Jul 24, 2015 00:00 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1083.40/1084.40
Low/High 1076.70 / 1106.50
Change -7.00 -0.64%
30daychg -91.60 -7.80%
1yearchg -210.50 -16.27%

The intermediate down phase continues.

The time and price destination to the final low has not yet been determined by Martin Armstrong.

$1000 gold will break according to him.

In some years following the upcoming bottom gold will reach to the $5000 area.
The bottom is just months away, prepare yourselves.
 By bluejay

07/07/2015  1:20PM

Gold $1154.50 OFF $15.30
Silver $15.05 OFF $0.70

Aside from all the gold bugs positive comments concerning gold, the metal is still being contained within its bearish intermediate trend. Gold bottoms out when it becomes a dirty word in the press.
 By bluejay

06/16/2015  7:56AM

Gold $1177.80 OFF $8.40
Silver $15.925 OFF $0.145

Metals Still Pointing Down
Posted on June 16, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
SVNYNF-M 6-15-2015

The precious metals are still pointing lower into our Benchmark targets. Indeed, the hunt for money by government is becoming so severe we may see the second Benchmark complete the decline rather than the first. So be prepared for that development. The hedge funds are starting to sell again keeping in sync with the charts. Our Energy Models are still negative on the monthly level.

Silver has held the Break-Line Channel for now, but critical support lies at the $12 level. A monthly closing below that will be the final signal that the extreme targets we provided in the the International Precious Metals Report will most likely be seen before this bear market is complete. So nothing has changed to alter those forecasts.
 By bluejay

05/28/2015  10:41AM

Nice to hear what the brokerage firms and banks think of gold. It would be nice just once if someone had the balls to see the truth and report it.

In my opinion what's happening with the thought process in the banks, mostly, it that get the public in again, what's left of buyers with cash, and then pull the plug on them, it's an old game.

Gold is not yet ready for prime time according to Martin Armstrong and his computer, Socrates. The day is coming within months that gold will break 1,000 but it will only be a temporary event. This is when the metal gets jump started to make new highs. It's called, the public must first be cleaned out.

And the real reason gold moves from that suspected low is presented in the following article by Martin Armstrong:

Gold – the Hedge Against Government
Posted on May 28, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
US$20Gold-pile(picture could not be transferred)

I have stated countless time that gold is NOT the hedge against inflation, hyperinflation, the anti-fiat antagonist against the dollar, or manipulation that keeps gold down; paper gold suppresses the price, and anything of the sort that amounts to promotions or excuses. Gold has followed the deflationary trend in commodities, if you haven’t paid attention to oil, and money supply is not a one-to-one relationship with inflation, for this is a global economy driven by CONFIDENCE. All of that nonsense is pure BULLSHIT, to state it bluntly.

Every single one of those sales promotions are meaningless and most manipulations in metals have been to the upside to entice the unsuspecting to rush in and buy every single high before they crash it. This has been going on since the 1970s. I knew the Hunt brothers in the early 1970s. They became a household name when the promoters exposed them to for convincing people that they would see $100 silver, so buy now at $50.

All of these promotions existed for the 19-year decline from 1980 to 1999. They roll them out to dupe people into buying every rally and these same people pretend analysts are selling gold, which is a conflict of interest. Come on. Today there are more regulations to protect the public when buying a used car than there is for gold.

I am not selling gold. There is ALWAYS a time to BUY and there will be a time to SELL. Sorry, I am a trader first and foremost. Gold is the hedge against government. The low in terms of dollars is still probably not in place. Keep in mind that we may see a major rally in the dollar and that will help gold decline in dollars.


NEVERTHELESS, that is the TRADING view. Gold from the hedging perspective may have lost its movability. This will have some dampening effect in price long-term. However, if we are talking about trading, then there may be better opportunities than gold. Perhaps the way to make gold movable again is for everyone to start wearing “bling-bling” as they call it, perhaps 2-ounce wedding rings are in order.

If we are talking about hedging, then yes you should have some common gold coins or jewelry. Where to store them is another whole problem. So we are not talking about trading in this context. They are moving rapidly to shutdown paper currency for they see this as the only way to prevent a bank meltdown. Their solution is to collect all the taxes they ever dreamed of to prevent anyone from buying or selling without government approval, using terrorism and drug dealers as the prime excuse. Of course, how are the police going to make money? When I landed in Poland, big signs at the airport declared it was illegal to carry ANYTHING worth more than €10,000. This is going to be a very questionable future we face.

I remain skeptical that these people can hold on to power, for we may be facing a serious political meltdown come 2016 into 2017. Gold is the hedge against government, not fiat or inflation. In this context, coins of common date will be the best rather than bars. Of course, you may not be able to leave your home.

We cannot stop what is coming; we have to crash and burn. We are in a battle for our freedom and that of our children. This is the only reason I have not run off to a beach and retired. What about my own posterity? While the crash and burn is inevitable, perhaps we can reduce the pain if we push back when the time comes and prevent the complete loss of all rights, privileges, and immunities, which America once embodied in our Constitution, securing the right of citizens to travel from one state to another was already protected by the Privileges and Immunities clause.
 By Michael Miller

03/28/2015  4:53PM

Morgan Stanley’s gold price prediction in 2015 is at $1,185.

CPM Group sees the price of gold falling for a third year in a row in 2015. It expects the average at $1,208.

MacNeil Curry, head of global technical analysis at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, sees gold perhaps reaching $1,300.
 By bluejay

01/24/2015  2:58PM

Gold $1294.10 Off $8.00
Silver $18.29 Off $0.02
US Dollar 94.99 Unch.

According to the analyst, Marin Armstrong, the world is at the beginning of a war cycle and shortly, will be at the beginning of a world sovereign debt crisis as well as entering a cycle of trading in public debt for private debt. Otherwise, we are at the very beginning of witnessing the bond bubble burst. So, how does all this all relate to gold?

The metal's current intermediate down phase continues with recent short term strength being generated by folks in Europe looking for a safer home for their wealth. Sure, most of the international flows have headed into dollar related assets with some spillover entering the gold and silver markets. The Greek election is next week and if the anti-austerity vote wins, there could be more turmoil in the Euro possibly pushing gold higher.

The folks in Brussels are a bunch of morons. They are day by day making economic fools of themselves insuring that the European states suffer. It is so bad that the cost of their labor is twice the amount in the U.S. It is just a matter of time until the EURO sinks lower with more money pouring into the US.

It is still possible that the big shake out in the gold market is waiting to happen? This could easily happen with a strong move in the stock market accompanied by a collapsing bond market as folks might not trust gold like they used to. People love to chase higher prices when the tide comes in but mainly will avoid depressed sectors.

Fundamentals would suggest gold will continue rising but the most sophisticated computer in the world, Socrates, says, the bottom is not yet in.
 By bluejay

01/18/2015  10:17AM

add to the end of the previous article:

keeps rising in cost.
 By bluejay

01/18/2015  10:13AM

More Unsettled Times Ahead Likely To Benefit Gold

Martin Armstrong

The next crisis will be the currency pegs against the dollar. Here we have pegs from Hong Kong to the Middle East. We will have the same problem for as the dollar is driven higher, thanks to the implosion in the Euroland, these nations will import DEFLATION from a rising dollar. This will break their backs and force pegs to collapse around the world. Keep in mind that this will unfold probably after 2015.75 and help to spiral the world economy into the worst depression in centuries. Start preparing for a rainy day.

These idiots are raising taxes when they should be lowering them as even Keynes suggested. Unfortunately, we are in a major crisis because of their insane mismanagement of the economy. There is nothing they will not steal. They are the type of people who are pocketing soap on the cart of the maid as they leave the hotel room. This level of corruption is turning into a feeding frenzy, which is our doom.

The rise in the dollar, will be the key to breaking the post-war economy. It was the flight of capital from Euroland into the Swiss that broke that peg. We will see in the months ahead the same crisis unfold in the Middle East and in Asia. This will be accelerated by the emerging economies who have issued $6 trillion in dollar debt since 2007. As the dollar rises, they will be forced into the same position as Greece – unable to pay their debts because the debt

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