April 18, 2021 

Gold Enters Major Bull Market


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 By bluejay

07/30/2015  10:40AM

Gold $1089.20 OFF $$7.70
Silver $14.73 OFF $ 0.08

Gold's 5000 day moving average is still ascending and in the vicinity of $800 plus. In my opinion. the metal remains in a bull market. The decline from above $1,900 is no more than an intermediate term scary reaction. As every day goes by, we are nearing the ultimate reaction low of this phase.

Some words from Martin Armstrong:

The Supply Side of Gold
Posted on July 30, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

A gold standard has never worked for one primary reason: the “money supply” cannot increase based upon economic conditions or politicians, rather it can increase due to new discoveries. This introduces the same flow concerned fiat money. The 19th century was plagued by the gold discoveries in California, Alaska, and Australia. Likewise, the discovery of gold in South America by the Spanish created massive inflation in Europe during the 16th century. The idea that gold provides some tangible value for money is absurd, for it has always risen and fallen in value based upon market conditions. Gold would no more provide a check against inflation than paper money. The only way to provide a stable money supply is to eliminate career politicians and stop the borrowing by government

Well, when it rains, it pours. In the Sudan, a large discovery of gold amounting to 43 tons has occurred, an amount expected to rise to 80 tons by the end of 2015, which is equivalent to a market value estimate of $2,555,262,400 if the market stays the same. The entire U.S. gold reserve is 8,000 tons. So, we are talking about a sizable discovery in the Sudan. The Sudanese government anticipates mining an additional 100 tons of gold in 2016.

From a supply-demand perspective, this could crush gold psychologically. In the long run, it will only have an impact when demand lags. It all depends upon the cost of production. When the monetary system cracks, that will be the focus. The markets will cherry-pick the news for that is always what they do.

The likelihood of the dollar collapsing is at zero right now. The crisis is manifesting in Europe first. The dollar will be driven higher as capital seeks to get off the grid and hide. The U.S. debt of $18 trillion is still a tiny fraction of the near $160 trillion in total world debt. It’s all a matter of perspective. Simply put, gold will rally ONLY when the stage is set. It will rise to the monetary crisis in the future – not right now.
 By bluejay

07/23/2015  9:06PM

Live Spot Gold
closes in 17 hrs. 15 mins.
Jul 24, 2015 00:00 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1083.40/1084.40
Low/High 1076.70 / 1106.50
Change -7.00 -0.64%
30daychg -91.60 -7.80%
1yearchg -210.50 -16.27%

The intermediate down phase continues.

The time and price destination to the final low has not yet been determined by Martin Armstrong.

$1000 gold will break according to him.

In some years following the upcoming bottom gold will reach to the $5000 area.
The bottom is just months away, prepare yourselves.
 By bluejay

07/07/2015  1:20PM

Gold $1154.50 OFF $15.30
Silver $15.05 OFF $0.70

Aside from all the gold bugs positive comments concerning gold, the metal is still being contained within its bearish intermediate trend. Gold bottoms out when it becomes a dirty word in the press.
 By bluejay

06/16/2015  7:56AM

Gold $1177.80 OFF $8.40
Silver $15.925 OFF $0.145

Metals Still Pointing Down
Posted on June 16, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
SVNYNF-M 6-15-2015

The precious metals are still pointing lower into our Benchmark targets. Indeed, the hunt for money by government is becoming so severe we may see the second Benchmark complete the decline rather than the first. So be prepared for that development. The hedge funds are starting to sell again keeping in sync with the charts. Our Energy Models are still negative on the monthly level.

Silver has held the Break-Line Channel for now, but critical support lies at the $12 level. A monthly closing below that will be the final signal that the extreme targets we provided in the the International Precious Metals Report will most likely be seen before this bear market is complete. So nothing has changed to alter those forecasts.
 By bluejay

05/28/2015  10:41AM

Nice to hear what the brokerage firms and banks think of gold. It would be nice just once if someone had the balls to see the truth and report it.

In my opinion what's happening with the thought process in the banks, mostly, it that get the public in again, what's left of buyers with cash, and then pull the plug on them, it's an old game.

Gold is not yet ready for prime time according to Martin Armstrong and his computer, Socrates. The day is coming within months that gold will break 1,000 but it will only be a temporary event. This is when the metal gets jump started to make new highs. It's called, the public must first be cleaned out.

And the real reason gold moves from that suspected low is presented in the following article by Martin Armstrong:

Gold – the Hedge Against Government
Posted on May 28, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
US$20Gold-pile(picture could not be transferred)

I have stated countless time that gold is NOT the hedge against inflation, hyperinflation, the anti-fiat antagonist against the dollar, or manipulation that keeps gold down; paper gold suppresses the price, and anything of the sort that amounts to promotions or excuses. Gold has followed the deflationary trend in commodities, if you haven’t paid attention to oil, and money supply is not a one-to-one relationship with inflation, for this is a global economy driven by CONFIDENCE. All of that nonsense is pure BULLSHIT, to state it bluntly.

Every single one of those sales promotions are meaningless and most manipulations in metals have been to the upside to entice the unsuspecting to rush in and buy every single high before they crash it. This has been going on since the 1970s. I knew the Hunt brothers in the early 1970s. They became a household name when the promoters exposed them to for convincing people that they would see $100 silver, so buy now at $50.

All of these promotions existed for the 19-year decline from 1980 to 1999. They roll them out to dupe people into buying every rally and these same people pretend analysts are selling gold, which is a conflict of interest. Come on. Today there are more regulations to protect the public when buying a used car than there is for gold.

I am not selling gold. There is ALWAYS a time to BUY and there will be a time to SELL. Sorry, I am a trader first and foremost. Gold is the hedge against government. The low in terms of dollars is still probably not in place. Keep in mind that we may see a major rally in the dollar and that will help gold decline in dollars.


NEVERTHELESS, that is the TRADING view. Gold from the hedging perspective may have lost its movability. This will have some dampening effect in price long-term. However, if we are talking about trading, then there may be better opportunities than gold. Perhaps the way to make gold movable again is for everyone to start wearing “bling-bling” as they call it, perhaps 2-ounce wedding rings are in order.

If we are talking about hedging, then yes you should have some common gold coins or jewelry. Where to store them is another whole problem. So we are not talking about trading in this context. They are moving rapidly to shutdown paper currency for they see this as the only way to prevent a bank meltdown. Their solution is to collect all the taxes they ever dreamed of to prevent anyone from buying or selling without government approval, using terrorism and drug dealers as the prime excuse. Of course, how are the police going to make money? When I landed in Poland, big signs at the airport declared it was illegal to carry ANYTHING worth more than €10,000. This is going to be a very questionable future we face.

I remain skeptical that these people can hold on to power, for we may be facing a serious political meltdown come 2016 into 2017. Gold is the hedge against government, not fiat or inflation. In this context, coins of common date will be the best rather than bars. Of course, you may not be able to leave your home.

We cannot stop what is coming; we have to crash and burn. We are in a battle for our freedom and that of our children. This is the only reason I have not run off to a beach and retired. What about my own posterity? While the crash and burn is inevitable, perhaps we can reduce the pain if we push back when the time comes and prevent the complete loss of all rights, privileges, and immunities, which America once embodied in our Constitution, securing the right of citizens to travel from one state to another was already protected by the Privileges and Immunities clause.
 By Michael Miller

03/28/2015  4:53PM

Morgan Stanley’s gold price prediction in 2015 is at $1,185.

CPM Group sees the price of gold falling for a third year in a row in 2015. It expects the average at $1,208.

MacNeil Curry, head of global technical analysis at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, sees gold perhaps reaching $1,300.
 By bluejay

01/24/2015  2:58PM

Gold $1294.10 Off $8.00
Silver $18.29 Off $0.02
US Dollar 94.99 Unch.

According to the analyst, Marin Armstrong, the world is at the beginning of a war cycle and shortly, will be at the beginning of a world sovereign debt crisis as well as entering a cycle of trading in public debt for private debt. Otherwise, we are at the very beginning of witnessing the bond bubble burst. So, how does all this all relate to gold?

The metal's current intermediate down phase continues with recent short term strength being generated by folks in Europe looking for a safer home for their wealth. Sure, most of the international flows have headed into dollar related assets with some spillover entering the gold and silver markets. The Greek election is next week and if the anti-austerity vote wins, there could be more turmoil in the Euro possibly pushing gold higher.

The folks in Brussels are a bunch of morons. They are day by day making economic fools of themselves insuring that the European states suffer. It is so bad that the cost of their labor is twice the amount in the U.S. It is just a matter of time until the EURO sinks lower with more money pouring into the US.

It is still possible that the big shake out in the gold market is waiting to happen? This could easily happen with a strong move in the stock market accompanied by a collapsing bond market as folks might not trust gold like they used to. People love to chase higher prices when the tide comes in but mainly will avoid depressed sectors.

Fundamentals would suggest gold will continue rising but the most sophisticated computer in the world, Socrates, says, the bottom is not yet in.
 By bluejay

01/18/2015  10:17AM

add to the end of the previous article:

keeps rising in cost.
 By bluejay

01/18/2015  10:13AM

More Unsettled Times Ahead Likely To Benefit Gold

Martin Armstrong

The next crisis will be the currency pegs against the dollar. Here we have pegs from Hong Kong to the Middle East. We will have the same problem for as the dollar is driven higher, thanks to the implosion in the Euroland, these nations will import DEFLATION from a rising dollar. This will break their backs and force pegs to collapse around the world. Keep in mind that this will unfold probably after 2015.75 and help to spiral the world economy into the worst depression in centuries. Start preparing for a rainy day.

These idiots are raising taxes when they should be lowering them as even Keynes suggested. Unfortunately, we are in a major crisis because of their insane mismanagement of the economy. There is nothing they will not steal. They are the type of people who are pocketing soap on the cart of the maid as they leave the hotel room. This level of corruption is turning into a feeding frenzy, which is our doom.

The rise in the dollar, will be the key to breaking the post-war economy. It was the flight of capital from Euroland into the Swiss that broke that peg. We will see in the months ahead the same crisis unfold in the Middle East and in Asia. This will be accelerated by the emerging economies who have issued $6 trillion in dollar debt since 2007. As the dollar rises, they will be forced into the same position as Greece – unable to pay their debts because the debt
 By bluejay

01/17/2015  6:42PM

Hi Mike and others.

The Swiss peg to the Euro was costing the Swiss central bank untold millions, so they broke free of it. Lagarde of the IMF acted surprised and was unhappy the Swiss didn't inform her prior to the break. Why should they have done it? They were losing millions buying the Euro and she probably would have told them not to do it. Looking ahead, Brussels has no clue on holding the Euro together. Expect Greece to soon pull out of the Euro putting more pressure on their currency while bringing in more gold buyers looking for safety.

Accorded to a noted analyst, Martin Armstrong, when his predicted Big Bang takes place at the end of September 2015, it's every man for himself.

We have just entered a period of upheaval that will only keep building in intensity accompanied with increased market volatility, be prepared for wide swinging markets, including the precious metals.

Gold closed Friday at $1280.30 breaking upwards through its 200 day moving average line which is positive, short term. While the intermediate trend remains trending lower, hopefully, this recent short term upward move can aid in turning the trend in force. The conservative approach would tend to command respect for the possibilities of new lower lows ahead during months ahead.

Gold stocks could be entering a short term bubble of strength, beware.
 By Michael Miller

01/16/2015  12:26PM

Yesterday, I was driving in my truck and switched the radio on. A business discussion was taking place between the host and a guest speaker. The speaker told that a major financial situation just broke. The Swiss National Bank announced its decision to remove a cap on the Swiss franc.

The surprise move, which essentially decouples the currency from the euro, sent the euro and dollar dropping against the Swiss franc, and has boosted demand for gold as a safe haven.

The discussion and ramifications with global markets was very interesting but I had arrived at my destination so left the truck. I expected to hear much more on subsequent news programs and newspapers. There was nothing. I don’t know what to make of this lack of interest but apparently it spurred the gold market to move to $1,261.38 an ounce. I like any number over $1,000.

12/19/2014  9:16AM

Howdy Bluejay!

It seems that the Hedge Fund Managers agree with you. Here's the title of a recent article in Mining.com.

Compared to December 2013, bullish bets by large speculators in gold futures are three times higher going into 2015. "This time around (compared to this time last year) the bearish exposure is currently only 3.8 million ounces and if we add the gross longs we find that the net position in the market is currently 10.5 million ounces long. So there's a lot of money betting gold will go up in 2015. The entire article can be found at:


Aloha and Happy Holidays!! Ron
 By bluejay

10/13/2014  11:00PM

The proven fact is that gold goes up when the consensus distrusts government as a result of continuing failures to manage their affairs. People are very slow to get the big picture until they start suffering from the misgivings of government where they can't deny it anymore with the growing difficulty in feeding their families.

The following is just the beginning of the energy that will restart gold's bull run, sadly as people suffer.

French Government on Brink of Collapse

Posted on October 14, 2014 by Martin Armstrong


French President François Hollande has brought his country to ruin and threatens to bring down Euroland with him. His insane budget plans have been admitted cannot possibly meet EU rules before 2017 and even that assumes some recovery. Meanwhile, Hollande has lost his last government partner. The PRG chief Jean-Michel Baylet on Sunday evening on television, announced that his small center-left party PRG will terminate the alliance with the Socialists. Prime Minister Manuel Valls has stated that if the tax burden on the middle class in the draft budget 2015 is not reduced, the party will abandon the Socialists and withdraw its three ministers. Hollande’s term runs until 2017.

These people cannot grasp that raising taxes is not the way to stimulate an economy. They people should spend their own money – politicians only confiscate and then spend according to their self-interest. Sorry – it just does not work.
 By bluejay

09/18/2014  1:44PM

Time for an update:

$1224.10 OFF $11.50

From experience, I feed on pessimism.

The short and intermediate trends remain
bearish, although the long term remains bullish. The critical area for the long term to turn bearish is the breaking of the $800 to $900 area.

The public continues their sporadic selling which is normal during down phases. Usually, the public doesn't have a clue. I am awaiting a mini smash in gold prices, possibly into the $1000 area, before I dump my airlines and rail shares. The stock market made, again, a new all-time high

The stock market may have another 100% left in it but if gold gets into the $1000 area it could easily be a five-bagger.

Everything is timing.
 By fredmcain

06/04/2014  6:39AM

Well folks, the jig is up. The bull market in gold is over. You can read about it by copying and pasting this address to your browser:


The title of the article is “Kiss The Gold Bull Market Goodbye”. Yes, it really is over. Sheesh ! What’s hard to figure out is that people just never seem to learn. This is another classic case of the “herd mentality” again.

I do not invest in gold metal or in gold metal funds. But, if I did NOW would be the time to buy for sure! If you want to get into something like this you need to buy when prices are down, not when they are flying sky-high.

A couple of years ago when gold was on a tear and closing in on $2,000 a troy ounce, I remember thinking to myself that if *I* owned any gold, I’d sell it and sell it NOW! History has proven me right. I suspect history might well prove me right again this time. If you want to own gold, buy it now! The rock bottom might still be a long way off but one thing’s for sure. We are a lot closer to the bottom now than we were three years ago! No one ever knows exactly where the bottom to any market is but if you buy something after a big, bear market loss you have a good chance of at least hitting it close.

Like I say, though, people don’t seem to be able to learn this. They make the same mistake over and over again by trying to buy something when it’s hot. They did that with technology stocks in the 1990s. They did it with real estate stocks in the 2001 – 2007 period and then they did it again with gold two, three and four years ago. They buy near the top of the market when something is hot then panic and sell it when it falls. They end up buying high and selling low.

I do not and will not buy gold. Why not? Well, please don’t spread this around but it’s because gold metal itself does not and cannot produce any earnings. *BUT* gold MINING companies do produce real earnings. So, as far as I’m concerned, now is not only a good time but a GREAT time to buy gold and silver mining stocks. Which ones? Personally, I am zeroing in on the Original Sixteen to One mine. But don’t get me wrong, I am not recommending that. That’s just what I’m doing, that’s all. After all, what do I know?

 By bluejay

05/29/2014  6:30PM

Gold For the Close of May

Posted on May 29, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

Gold is moving into the June seasonal low on schedule. A closing for the month on a Nearest Futures basis tomorrow below 1251 should result in the sharp decline. A monthly closing BELOW 1192 will warn serious of a sharp decline that will more than likely break the $1000 level. C A U T I O N is highly advised.
 By fredmcain

05/05/2014  5:12AM


Do you suppose there's any truth to this article?


Collecting Huge Gains From The World's Next "Gold Rush"

When I first heard this I was shocked.

During a recent trip to Asia, I received one of the most startling tips I've ever heard.

I met up with a long-time colleague of mine named Andrew, who runs an investment firm in Singapore. This is a man who's made millions of dollars trading gold and other commodities.

He told me that right now, Chinese officials are quietly building the world's largest national reserves of gold bullion... and within the next year, the Chinese government wants to shock the markets with a surprise announcement of their pumped up holdings.

Sudden word of a buyer like China having tied up so much supply would almost certainly be a hair trigger for gold prices moving up -- and send share prices of a handful of gold producers through the roof.

And because several of these producers pay dividends, it would also give income investors a chance to take advantage of this big growth opportunity, too.

I immediately started looking into this "Gold Rush" story... and it turns out that it's really happening.

Over the past 12 months the Chinese government has been stockpiling gold, with unprecedented quantities being bought and sold through markets in Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

Some of this buying is being reported... but the majority of it is not. The Chinese government is notoriously tight-lipped regarding their finances.

As currency expert and bestselling author, James Rickards, explains:

This Unloved Stock Could Pay A 14% 'Dividend' In 4 Weeks]
"If you're China, the last thing you want to do is be transparent about your gold purchases, because it will drive the price up."

Because of this secrecy, few know that China (already by far the world's largest gold producer) has surpassed India as the world's largest gold importer for the first time in recent history.

You can see what I mean in the chart below. It shows Chinese gold imports over the past 6 years and record increases over the last 3 years.
 By bluejay

05/03/2014  4:01PM

Gold $1300.60 UP $15.70
Silver $19.46 UP $ 0.44

Posted on May 2, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

So far gold’s rally is an outside reversal to the upside on a daily basis, not weekly. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stands at 1336. Support lies at 1280-1272 for this week into next followed by 1240. Resistance starts at 1307 next week followed by 1331. Initial support will rise slightly to 1290.

We still see June and September as the key months ahead followed by next January. Keep in mind that a 3 year reaction from the 2011 high is 2014 but a 3 year from the highest annual closing is 2015.

It is looking more and more like we will see geopolitical on an international basis as well. These politicians on both sides are going to have a real problem when the economy in the US turns down. That is the only economy holding up the entire world right now. Once US consumers stop buying, the people will begin to rise up against government on a wide scale basis. Also keep in mind we have the US election in 2016 and there should be a sharp rise in third-party activity. We are also monitoring a rise in third-party activity everywhere including even in India. So there are a lot more political hot spots getting ready to bubble up to the surface.
 By bluejay

04/14/2014  10:30PM

China's gold demand rising 25% by 2017 as buyers get wealthier
China, which overtook India as the largest user last year, will rise about 25 percent in the next four years.

Author: Nicholas Larkin, Bloomberg
Posted: Tuesday , 15 Apr 2014
Gold demand in China, which overtook India as the largest user last year, will rise about 25 percent in the next four years as an increasing population gets wealthier, according to the World Gold Council.

Consumer demand will expand to at least 1,350 metric tons by 2017, the London-based council said in a report today. Growth may be limited this year after 2013’s price decline spurred consumers to do more buying last year, it said. China accounted for about 28 percent of global usage last year, the council estimated in February.
 By cw3343

03/24/2014  12:59PM

I am not endorsing or confirming anything in the link below (or the website it is on), as I kind of read it rather quickly - but it may answer part of your statement of dumping a lot of gold on the "market"


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