July 6, 2022 

Gold Enters Major Bull Market


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 By bluejay

01/18/2010  11:29AM

Last on gold is $1132.70 with American markets closed today in observance of Martin Luther King day.

Jim Sinclair at jsmineset.com makes positive comments today on Africa's economic future aided by Chinese investments.

It's all about developing new markets and locking up natural resources along with guaranteeing China an exclusive source of gold in the years ahead.

Martin Armstrong sees China as the new Rome.
 By bluejay

01/17/2010  11:45PM

Gold is higher at $1136.10 in Asian trading tonight. It's the same old story IMO, China continues to buy in bona fide markets while avoiding NY markets that are bound by edicts from the Treasury and the Fed to Wall Street bullion banks to continue the phony sales causing general metal weakness when their doors are open.

The dye to our possible financial demise has been cast with our continuing out of control debt expansion. The world's eighth largest economy, California, is bankrupt as are so many other states. Our personal debt bubble of our holdings in real estate has burst and continues to suck our blood. The temporarly lows will be recorded in the second half of 2012 according to Martin Armstrong, only to continue lower starting in 2015 for another 33 years. There are reports floating around that home prices will sink further for the next two years by a minimum of 30%.

In Reno and Las Vegas, home prices are off 50% and more since 2007. Since they have been especially hard hit, it's conceivable to think that sometime in 2012 they could touch an inviting low point from which to rally up from until 2015.

Got your gold?
 By bluejay

01/06/2010  10:01PM

In The News Today
Posted: Jan 06 2010 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: January 6, 2010 at 8:56 pm

Filed under: In The News

Dear CIGAs,

The Angels are moving targets that are refined with each market reaction. Their change is miniscule but we account for it. That fact that $1224.10 was the cash high and the fact that the $1080 area worked reasonably well has lit up $1764 even brighter than $1650.

I therefore conclude that gold is definitively going to $1650 with an overrun to $1764 prior to a reaction before it moves to higher prices on or before January 14th, 2011.
 By bluejay

01/06/2010  9:35PM

The following are comments made by Doug Casey today of the Casey Dispatch that are profound:

Doug Casey on Currency Regime Change

(Interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator)

L: Happy New Year, Doug! Whats on your mind these days have any new thoughts for the new year?

Doug: Well, the new currencies discussed in the news have caught my attention.

L: Ah, yes. Hugo Chavez is launching a new virtual currency among some Latin American and Caribbean countries called the sucre. It looks like its going to be little more than an accounting fiction among trading partners. But the new currency the Persian Gulf states are talking about launching, the so-called gulfo, that looks more like a serious contender. What do you make of this?

Doug: My first reaction is to say, Monkey see, monkey do. In imitation of the European Union, these people are monkeying around with what should be money. Thats gold, of course. But you know, Ive been surprised that the first of these Esperanto currencies, the euro, has lasted as long as it has. It was officially adopted in 1999, though not put into actual circulation as bank notes and coins until 2002. It started out with a theft, in that the old currencies that people had were only good for another three years. After that, your deutschmarks, guilders, francs, and what-have-you were good only for wallpaper. If you had any stuffed under your mattress, you found out what their intrinsic value was.

But the euro thats replaced them, too, is backed by nothing. Nothing but the good faith and credit of the participating governments which are all going bankrupt. The problems in the EU arent just with Greece, Italy, and Spain; Britain and France are being downgraded, and its going to get much worse.

L: But wait a minute, is the euro really backed by even that? Well, maybe good faith, whatever that is, but not the credit of the participating countries. What would that mean? Credit in what? You cant take euros to the German government and say, I want deutschmark for these. Certainly not gold. If the dollar is a floating abstraction, the euro is all the more so, trying to stay afloat on a void.

Doug: I agree. If the dollar is an IOU nothing, the euro is a who owes you nothing. When it collapses, a lot of people are going to suffer a big wealth haircut. Bernie Madoff swindled thousands of people out of billions. The euro will swindle millions of people out of trillions.

L: Right but then is it accurate to say that its backed by the good faith and credit of these governments? I dont think it is.

Doug: Thats a good point. The average urban peasant in Europe thinks his government is somehow watching out for him. I suppose thats true, at least the way a dairyman watches his cows, or a swineherd watches his pigs. But the euro really is backed by nothing. Though, at the moment, you could say its backed by Mercedes cars and Gucci bags anything you can trade euros for. But thats for a limited time. Im absolutely convinced the euro is going to fall apart it makes no sense at all. It might be convenient for the national governments to then blame the European Central Bank. There will be recriminations and bad feelings all around.

And yet, its had a period of relative success against the dollar, and since phony economics reigns everywhere in the world, its not surprising to see other countries wonder if they can pull off the same scam.

L: Sure: If it worked for them, why not for us?

Doug: Exactly. The thing is that in the case of the Gulf countries, nobody uses those currencies outside of the issuing countries. They are really non-entities and everyone would like to secure the advantages the U.S. dollar has for their own countries. When other countries use your currency as a reserve, or even as their own currency, you can print the things up by the truckload and ship them overseas in exchange for valuable goods. You can essentially export inflation.

Its a subtle fraud thats worked for the dollar and, to some degree, its started to work for the euro. People see that its backed by big countries that are perceived to still be wealthy, so they accept euros with some confidence. Its a colorful, arty, well-printed currency, which comes in denominations up to 500. Arabs would like to see their currency accepted with equal confidence.

L: Sure, why not?

Doug: Hell, Id like to have a government and print up my own currency too. And Chavez and his cronies in these nothing-nowhere countries like Honduras and Cuba would love to have a central bank that gets that kind of respect. The Cuban peso has zero value outside of Cuba, and almost zero value inside Cuba. Cubans dont use it if they can possibly avoid it, and never hold it. Its like the Old Maid card. And thats within a police state, where everyone has been indoctrinated over three generations about how their governments paper was actually better than gold. Lenin quipped that its best used for constructing urinals in an ideal socialist world. And of course if youre very wealthy, or a fool, you can certainly use it that way.

But its not going to work. I guarantee that where these things dont turn into total disasters, they will come to nothing. Anyone who is holding assets in sucres or gulfos, just like euros and dollars, is going to be left with nothing when the game of musical chairs stops.

Look at the sucre. Its supposed to be for trade between the participating countries. They wont actually issue paper money or coins. If they are just going to use it to settle trade between themselves, its just an accounting gimmick. The whole thing is ridiculous. The first trade in the sucre is supposed to happen between Venezuela and Cuba for a shipment of rice, any day now. What of real value could the Cubans possibly use to pay for this? They produce absolutely nothing but sugar and cigars.

L: So Instead of paying with sugar and cigars, theyll pay with sucres, which they got like imaginary monopoly money at the beginning of a game? And the Venezuelans will take these and use them to buy something really exciting from Bolivia?

Doug: [Laughs] Yes, perhaps a boatload of alpaca wool sweaters. The whole thing is ridiculous. Its really nothing more than a bunch of bankrupts passing IOUs around to each other. They make each other feel as though theyve been paid, when in fact they all have nothing.

We have to start by asking: What is a currency?

The answer is that a currency is a government substitute for money.

This originated in the practice of private banks to issue bank notes. Youd take your gold to a bank, and the bank would issue you a paper note attesting to the gold you had on deposit. Why would they do this? Because its more convenient to carry a paper in your pocket than a large amount of gold. Thats how this started, with bank notes that represented real money in storage.

And then, as governments took over the function of banking with their central banks every country has a central bank now they, too, printed up bank notes (currencies) that represented gold on deposit. After a while, people seemed to forget that the currency only represented value and had no intrinsic value of its own, and governments were able to stop backing their currencies with anything at all.

Thats how the modern financial world works; its entirely based on nothing masquerading as something of value.

L: I guess its a cultural thing, like a witch doctor whose spells are backed by the full faith and credit given him, which is indeed powerful in a society that believes in them. Because everyone believes, when he says certain things will happen, they do, and people accept his powers as real. But he does not, in fact, command any magical forces, and the paper currencies people accept all around the world do not, in fact, represent any real value. At some point, reality asserts itself, as when the witch doctors powers fail in some vital task. That may be whats happening to paper currencies in the world today; if the U.S. dollar follows the Zimbabwe dollar, the whole paper faade may be torn apart, beyond any repair.

Doug: That could be. Although, while inconvenient in the process, it would be a good thing in many ways. These governments labor under the conceit that printing up more paper will create more wealth. The truth is that it does just the opposite, because the inflated money supply sends false signals to the market, and people build things, buy things, invest in things, etc. that they would not do without that false information. Thats how governments distort economic decision-making and create massive misallocations of capital.

L: Have you seen that YouTube video on Chinas empty city?

[Ed. Note: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk]

Doug: Thats a perfect example.

L: Well, monkey see, monkey do is a pretty negative assessment of these new currency ideas, but isnt there a positive side? Not that theyll actually work, but that they might hasten the collapse of the paper charade?

Doug: It certainly is a sign of the times. It shows that all these other governments, at least, can see the writing on the wall and want to get away from the U.S. dollar. They know that if they keep using dollars and storing them, theyre going to end up holding the Old Maid card, or getting burned by the hot potato, if you prefer. Thats the economic reason. In the case of people like Chavez and Morales, they want to get away from it for political reasons as well. Theres no reason to want to help the enemy by using his currency.

But the Russians are playing it much smarter. Theyve been consistently and significantly building their gold reserves over the last several years. They seem to add substantially to those reserves every month.

For a long time, Ive thought that what will happen is that someone will come out of left field and offer the world a gold-backed version of their currency. It could easily be the Russians, or the Chinese. And if they did it right, making the currency fully redeemable in gold, that currency would become the strongest in the world. As a result, capital would pour into their banking system. And, assuming they made some other reforms, namely cutting taxes and regulation, their economies would become real powerhouses producing sustainable growth.


China has been buying up gold and copper in the ground now for many many months. Expect them to continue this trend until they announce a new gold backed currency that will sink the dollar and propel gold to unknown heights.

Got your gold?
 By bluejay

01/06/2010  8:36PM

http://www.kitco.com/ind/schoon/jan042010.html is the link to the Darryl Schoon article inadvertently omitted from the entry below.
 By bluejay

01/06/2010  8:27PM

The last sale on gold is $1133.00 as it continues to climb the wall of media doubt up from recent lows near $1075.00.

Linked below is a recent superb article by Darryl Schoon entitled, "The United States of America - An American Tradegy."

In the later part of his essay Mr. Schoon compares the failures of John Law to the potential disasterous events coming to this country partly at the hands and influence of Obama's White House director of the National Economic Council, Larry Summers.

Prior to his currently held position, Larry Summers was the president of Harvard University. What Summers did to Harward was a disgrace that Obama should have taken a strong second look at but failed to do so for some reason.

Larry Summers Gambled Away Harvard Billions

 By bluejay

12/19/2009  11:39AM

Gold closed out the week at $1112.40.

The next time you read some media whore presentations concerning their questioning gold as an investment go to this website:

 By Dave I.

12/17/2009  8:04PM

Evaluating your gold reserves can be done with taking the Average of past production and applying it to evidence of mine able quarts still in available. A core drilling plan can confirm it.
 By bluejay

12/17/2009  3:31PM

Last on gold is $1099.80.

The industry paints its own picture on how to evaluate a gold property. As Mike mentions, this is done with stated reserves. Reserves are no more than mathematics applied to core testing from a lab. The metallurgy of dealing with complex ores could be complicated. Stated reserves are not an exact science. Extracting infill proven ore from a blocked out area even has its slight variances at times when receipts come in from the milling process, sometimes better, with other times not as good as expected. On balance, it's the best system in identifying, with some assurances, that gold is present.

Unfortunately for drilling in our gold system here in Alleghany, you can throw out the window reserves because drilling only proves up structure with MAYBE a small or larger high grade hit here and there. Experienced miners in the district are worth more than drilling teams because they have a better nose for gold than the drill bit.

What hinders investment in the Alleghany District comes from different fronts:

1- Our inability to get the District's story out to potential investors.

2- The State's complete ignorance as to what supporting a industy will do for creating jobs and increasing revenue. One only has to look to Quebec for a complete mining success story concerning employment and government revenue.

3- Lastly, general concern in protecting shareholder's discovered high grade gold. Sandor can solve this one.

Jean Guy Rivard the once president of Louvem Gold Mines in Quebec told me that the handling of high grade is a concern of all mining company officials.
 By Michael Miller

12/16/2009  1:19PM

The gold mines of this Company have produced about 100 tons of gold. Conservative geologists are comfortable reporting that as much remains within our boundaries and accessible. Over the years geologists have written that as much as 80% of the gold deposited here remains unmined.

Let’s use the conservative opinion. Assume the gold remaining estimate below is correct, our properties have .4% of the gold left unmined on earth. Whoopee! Now here is why the established investment community shies away from the Sixteen to One…we do not report proven reserves. The first question I have been asked over the years by members of the establishment when discussing our mine is, “What are your proven reserves?” My answer is zero because when we see gold we mine it and it goes into inventory. Most companies misrepresent their reserve accounting and the establishment hasn’t a clue how to evaluate the number.

One of my responses to the question is this. “Reserves mean nothing to evaluate this gold deposit. The question you should ask is, ‘ How has this mine and company stayed operating so long without reserves?’” That is the question I want to answer.

The world gold price may be in a lull for a while. Exchanging $1100 for one ounce of the yellow stuff suites me fine. I’m off to the dump. Your comments are welcomed.
 By bluejay

12/16/2009  9:53AM

Last on gold is $1134.20.

Mined gold totals 163,000 tonnes worldwide: WGC

www.chinaview.cn 2009-12-17 00:36:22 Print

SHANGHAI, Dec. 16 (Xinhua) -- All the gold mined so far totaled 163,000 tonnes across the world, an official with the World Gold Council (WGC) said here Wednesday.

Albert L.H. Cheng, managing director of WGC's far east area, said in a lecture about this year's gold market that 83,600 tonnes of the total amount had been used in making jewelries, while individual investment activities accounted for 27,300 tonnes.

Gold reserves held by countries occupied 28,700 tonnes and 19,700 tonnes went to industrial production or other uses, he cited statistics from WGC as saying.

An estimated of 26,000 tonnes of gold deposit remained undeveloped, and the resource will run out for 10 years based on the current mining speed, he said.
 By Nose for Au

12/16/2009  9:51AM

You have to drill an assay hole in the bar. (Not in the standard location.) Most often tungsten carbide is used. When the assay drill hits it, the drill glows red hot.
 By bluejay

12/15/2009  6:34PM

Last on gold is $1125.90.

Posted: Dec 15 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: December 15, 2009 at 7:16 pm

Filed under: In The News

Thoughts on Real Gold:

Traditional testing in the past has been by density calculation (mass divided by volume), but tungsten-lead alloys can be created that almost perfectly match the density of gold or silver, thereby rendering that test useless. Additionally, surface testing with acid chemicals or surface x-ray fluorescence is also an invalid test because in these situations, the outer surface layer of the counterfeit bars remains pure gold or silver, it’s only the center core of the bar that’s been removed and replaced with tungsten or lead/ tungsten alloy.
 By bluejay

12/13/2009  1:00PM

Gold closed out the week at $1115.10.

Brent Cook of Exploration Insights said a few months back in the following linked article to stay away from Russia, the Congo, Mongolia, Venezuela, Equador and California. Basically says, California won't let you open a mine.

 By bluejay

12/06/2009  5:48PM

This Little-Known Rule Could Send Gold to $10,000

Excerpts from the above story that appeared 12-02-09 at kitco.com under commentaries.

According to the U.S. Treasury, $2 trillion worth of debt will mature in the next 12 months. So looking only at short-term debt, we know the Treasury will have to finance at least $2 trillion worth of maturing debt in the next 12 months. That might not cause a crisis if we were still funding our national debt internally. But since 1985, we've been a net debtor to the world. Today, foreigners own 44% of all our debts, which means we owe foreign creditors at least $880 billion in the next 12 months – an amount far larger than our reserves.

Keep in mind, this only covers our existing debts. The Office of Management and Budget is predicting a $1.5 trillion budget deficit over the next year. That puts our total funding requirements on the order of $3.5 trillion over the next 12 months.

So... where will the money come from? Total domestic savings in the U.S. are only around $600 billion annually. Even if we all put every penny of our savings into U.S. Treasury debt, we're still going to come up nearly $3 trillion short. That's an annual funding requirement equal to roughly 40% of GDP.

Where is the money going to come from? From our foreign creditors? Not according to Greenspan-Guidotti. And not according to the Indian or Russian central banks, which have stopped buying Treasury bills and begun to buy enormous amounts of gold. The Indians bought 200 metric tonnes this month. Sources in Russia say the central bank there will double its gold reserves.

So where will the money come from? The printing press. The Federal Reserve has already monetized nearly $2 trillion worth of Treasury debt and mortgage debt. This weakens the value of the dollar and devalues our existing Treasury bonds. Sooner or later, our creditors will face a stark choice: Hold our bonds and continue to see the value diminish slowly, or try to escape to gold and see the value of their U.S. bonds plummet.

One thing they're not going to do is buy more of our debt. Which central banks will abandon the dollar next? Brazil, Korea, and Chile. These are the three largest central banks that own the least amount of gold. None owns even 1% of its total reserves in gold.

I examined these issues in much greater detail in the most recent issue of my newsletter, Porter Stansberry's Investment Advisory. Coincidentally, the New York Times repeated my warnings – nearly word for word – a few weeks ago. They didn't mention Greenspan-Guidotti, however... It's a real secret of international speculators.

My readers know that Greenspan-Guidotti means the U.S. is likely to have a severe currency crisis within the next two years. How high will gold go during this crisis? Nobody can say for sure. We've never been in the situation we are now. The numbers have never been so large and dangerous. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see gold at $10,000 an ounce by 2012. Make sure you own some.

Good investing,

Porter Stansberry
 By bluejay

12/06/2009  12:33PM

America's largest creditor takes a swipe at the bad deeds that are continuing in our propped up banking system.

 By bluejay

12/05/2009  10:59AM

Gold closed out the week under selling pressure at $1161.40. The retracement from the weeks high from about $1225 represents a percentage decline of, roughly, 5.2%.

Sure, gold was extended but the percentage reaction may be inclined to continue somewhat further. This is all completely normal within gold's current bull market as compared to its last major run up of the late 1970's and into January of 1980 where it temporarly breached $900.

Three market experts, Jim Sinclair, Alf Field and Martin Armstrong have stated that much higher prices for gold are in order. So a good question is, where does this gold weakness run out of gas?

It would not be a surprise for the cartel to want gold prices below $1000, again. In their wishful thinking, if $1000 gold gave way then they would be home free with all their short positions. Unfortunately for them, the world has changed so much that this will never happen.

Major short term Sell-offs preceding the eventual high in January of 1980, on the average, were 12%. So if history is revisited during this gold bull market, the metal could in theory sell down to about $980. Will it happen? Or, will this be just a minor short term decline within a much larger continuing major bull market?

At the moment, it's anyone's guess.

By the way, The two major short term declines in 1979 bottomed out at $400 and $650 before $900 was reached.
 By bluejay

12/05/2009  10:31AM

Gold closed out the week under selling pressure at $1161.40. The retracement from the weeks high from about $1225 represents a percentage decline of, roughly, 5.2%.

Sure, gold was extended but the percentage reaction may be inclined to continue somewhat further. This is all completely normal within gold's current bull market as compared to its last major run up of the late 1970's and into January of 1980 where it temporarly breached $900.

Three market experts, Jim Sinclair, Alf Field and Martin Armstrong have stated and inferred that much higher prices for gold are in order. So a good question is, when and where does this gold weakness stop?

Based upon historical percentage declines in the 1979 gold bull market, an educated guess can be made that gold will establish a short term b
 By bluejay

12/02/2009  7:22PM

Gold continues to push higher tonight with a last sale of $1225.00.

Below are some comments on gold from the Casey Report:

Gold on the Move – Again
I will leave off shortly, as I am buried deep in the final stages of preparing this month’s edition of The Casey Report, which should be released tomorrow. (Which makes this a good time to check out our no-risk trial!)

Before I go, though, I want to comment that gold is on the move again – trading at $1,214.70 as I write. Meanwhile, the GDX, an ETF that mirrors the Amex Gold Miners index, is up to $55.11, a gain of 160% from a year ago.

With gains like that, a pause in the action is almost a certainty. Or is it? (I actually have no idea, so consider that a rhetorical question.)

One data point to consider is that legendary hedge fund manager John Paulson’s new gold fund is scheduled to launch in January. A fund that he has personally committed to kick off with up to $250 million of his own money.

It seems a safe assumption, given the tone of the market and Paulson’s reputation – not to mention the fact that he is putting serious money of his own into the deal – that the new fund will not only raise a lot of money, but that it will be – is being – mimicked by some significant percentage of the hedge funds now sitting on approximately $2 trillion.

Throw into the mix the retail money that today’s steadily rising prices are attracting and even the central banks, which have now returned to the markets as buyers, and it’s not hard to see that gold and silver could come out of the box in January like a cat with its tail on fire.

And with that, I will sign off for the day. Until tomorrow, thanks for reading and being a subscriber to a Casey Research publication.
 By bluejay

12/01/2009  7:15PM

Gold continues advancing as if it were at full steam ahead with a last sale of $1207.90.

One must wonder, are we in a historical run on the gold shorts? Do educated suspected short term chart trouble areas mean nothing to this charging bull? Are the the banks who heavily shorted gold down to about $700 last year on the verge of being wiped out? Are these some of the banks that people you know still have their money deposited with? Will the FDIC cover the banks continuing gambling losses that go so horribly wrong again?

Even though gold could be ahead of itself on a short term basis, that's where your safety and independence from the grumbling fiat system lies.

Below are some words spoken by Lorimer Wilson recently:

How high will precious metals equities and the gold price go?

My sense is that it will be in orders of magnitude far greater than most analysts allow themselves to state or believe. We frequently see price projections of 20 or 50 percent higher than today.

Some even allow themselves to suggest that gold will double in price before it has reached its cycle high. We may even see a rare analyst allow himself to speculate that gold prices may find and end at the $3,000 an ounce level. Of course a few discredited gold bugs suggest numbers even greater.

So why am I so optimistic about the eventual price of gold?

It is because an affinity for and an understanding of the political mindset causes me to understand what decision makers will do…and why. Because a politician follows the political calendar, s(he)/he only concerns himself/herself with the time horizon leading to the next election.

Anything requiring decisions beyond the date of the next election will be the responsibility of whoever is on the next watch. If the politician in office today is in office after the next election, a shrug of the shoulder indicates that worries of that kind can be dismissed for now to be dealt with later.

So major and difficult, but necessary, decisions are inevitably deferred. In their place spending money gives the appearance of concern and of doing something to fix the apparent problem. Aren’t those elected officials doing what we elected them to do? It certainly looks as if they are.

More cynical observers would characterize these actions by the political class and their senior bureaucratic minions as buying time hoping that something positive might magically emerge.

Those who are super cynical would even conclude give-away programs are designed simply to bribe the voters in order to curry goodwill for another term at the levers of power.

What all this means is that there is no discipline or inclination to do anything of real value in fixing the core economic and financial problems. That being the case, new programs, more spending stimulus and money creation will always be the order of the day. Hence the currency will devalue and investors will find gold as their best safe-haven refuge.

The dollar will devalue because massive dilution caused by incessant money creation allows future obligations to become more manageable – for government – because it is the only way that it can meet its future obligations for employee pensions, accumulated debt, Medicare and social security.

A nominal dollar which buys much less in the future than it does today is still a dollar. Unfortunately the holders or recipients of those devalued pieces of paper will find they are essentially fraudulent promises.

These realities make gold the closest thing to a sure-bet investment. They are also the reasons why gold will go much higher than most of us allow ourselves to contemplate.

Buckle your seatbelts and enjoy the ride ahead!

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