June 2, 2020 

Gold Enters Major Bull Market


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 By Michael Miller

12/20/2016  6:23PM


Some savvy financial businessmen I know commented about the posture of the gold market in the near term. All agree that this current fall is an event in the bull market regarding price. What do you see for the current slide?

Comments include: regarding the increase buying power of the US dollar, the reality (or threat) of inflation is ignored; the price manipulators will drive the price down in order to firmly set a low before increasing gold inventor for the future bull increase.

I always fall back on what our great past director, Leland H. Erdahl, recommended as a response when asked about spot pricing. “Mike, rest assured that the following will be the truth. Tell them the price will be higher or lower, it goes up or down and that is about all one should expect.”

With this caveat in mind, how do you see the coming months?

We don’t play the gold market. We are sellers this week because bills must be paid. Oh, well. Next week, I am sure, spot will be higher or lower.
 By bluejay

10/07/2016  5:37AM

For the week

Gold $1253 off $64.10
Silver $17.34 off $1.87

The round number of 1300 on gold has been breached along with some support at the 1290 level. It looks like the metal is headed to the $1200 level. This is quite possible as the last remaining time in 2016 should be on balance, a bit negative.

When this section was named and started back in January of 2003 it was because a new major bull market in gold had begun, contrary to what you were reading in the papers, hearing on CNBC and on the nightly news. The bull market began exactly on January 23, 2003 when it crossed $352. This bull market remains in force. If for any reason it breaks $700 then, well, this major trend will have changed.

As most folks know, the trading up and down within this bull trend in gold and its related companies can be exciting and at times, scary. The current sell-off in both, overall, could last a matter of unknown weeks ahead. Looking at possible positives, it would be nice if the $1200 level on yellow metal generally held until January of next year when Martin Armstrong once mentioned that a new leg up in gold will begin. He also mentioned sometime back that he sees gold reaching $5,000 in three or four years.

Personally, I don't want to attempt to pinpoint the bottom coming up because it's a waste of time playing these games. I would rather concentrate on looking at gold related companies now, knowing they could go lower, and slowly start picking up the ones that have talented proven management with money in the till knowing this current lower move will end, hopefully followed by much higher price going forward.

I follow closely a few excellent gold sniffers up in Canada by the names of David Palmer
and Pierre Lassonde. I continue to hold all my OSTO shares and patiently wait for the next big find which, IMO, is just a matter of time. Thanks Mike for all your time and expertise in keeping the mine a going concern.
 By bluejay

08/31/2016  6:13PM

Gold $1308 Minus $2.50
Silver $18.67 Up $0.11

Gold has entered a declining phase along with silver. Next support on gold is $1290 followed by $1200. The gold shares have as well been weak.

It appears the precious metals will remain challenged going into the weeks ahead,
 By bluejay

07/14/2016  2:38AM

Gold $1343.30 UP $9.60

Following the British vote to exit the EU, gold advanced smartly. Since then it has been backing and filling with a lower bias.

Expecting a lower metal price, BREXIT changed everything for the time being. Currently, gold is positive while it remains
above its 1000 day at $1306.06.

There is no question what pushed gold higher and sustained the advancing metal related shares was money exiting western Europe. This trend continues, especially in the U.S. replica watches stock market. Although more funds will eventually head our way, a question remains, is this spurt near to ending

06/29/2016  7:53PM

Soros and many big players know it is faster and easier to make an investment paper deflate (go down) than increase in value (go up).
Short selling for manipulators is a money maker.
 By bluejay

06/29/2016  3:33AM

A follow up on what George Soros was doing marketwise several weeks back:

Today's comments from Martin Armstrong,

"No professional trader tells people what he will do in advance. Those announcements were made AFTER Soros took a position. I believe they were stories to create his exit. You get people rushing in who think they are joining him when they are being used for the exit.

George Soros is reported by Bloomberg to have been on the wrong side for he was long in the pound before Britain’s vote to leave the European Union on Friday. That means he probably sold the gold positions and used that hype as the exit. He clearly assumed BREXIT would not happen. However, Soros is generally a bear in world stock markets and this is the majority of the crowd. Soros also donated $8 million to Hillary along with the worst of the worst from Wall Street."
 By bluejay

05/30/2016  3:05AM

Gold $1215,30 off $4.50
Silver $16.25 off $0.09

Will gold sell off more, contrary to Soros's positive outlook for it and on Barrick Gold?

The analyst Martin Armstrong and his computer Socrates relating to past bearish
intermediate calls on the metal from above $1,900, appear to think so.

His Friday's comments are certainly not bullish over the short term for gold:

It might appear that Soros' bullish stance on gold and possibly Barrick Gold could be premature.

Friday's comments from Martin Armstrong might indicate a storm ahead for gold:

"The markets are in turmoil. Gold has plunged again trading down trying to flirt with 1206. If we close below 1206 today, then get prepared for a test of 1174 which is the next Monthly Bearish beyond 1240. If we get this signal today, it begins to look like we will break 1000. Failing to exceed last year’s high keeps it on track where we have the potential for the low in 2016. Looks like we will shake the diehards out of the tree."

This is only for the short term, the long term is a different story. Mr. Armstrong expects gold to reach $5,000 an ounce starting when gold finally hits its bottom. The big question is, has gold bottomed already or will it be bottoming lower? It would not surprise me if gold does make a lower low but without new lows in the gold related companies. Only time will tell.
 By Hans Kummerow

05/24/2016  11:53PM

Talking about safe deposit boxes:

After the gold seizure order of 1933 IRS sealed safe deposit boxes nationwide. And of course the owners of the boxes were on record at the banks.

And of course the banks, who were controlling the access to the boxes, were held responsible that no seal was broken - except in the presence of an IRS-Representative.

That is a lesson from history too that is worthy of being remembered.
 By bluejay

05/24/2016  4:36AM


Your reference to history seems quite in order. Thank you for your submission.

Yes, when it comes to government being pushed into a financial corner anything is possible. Roosevelt was a coin collector. If history repeats itself it may be OK to hold collection coins more than bars and the bullion coins and the bullion jewelry. Government appears certainly moving in that direction as holding gold in safety deposits boxes is now considered money laundering by them.

Here are some of today's comments by Martin Armstrong:

When you introduce a collapse in confidence in government, people no longer “feel” secure and they hoard even the based currency. This is why we find so many hoards of debased Roman currency during the chaotic 3rd century.

It is a curious paradox. Right now people are hoarding, as are the banks and corporations. It is hard to hoard paper currency for you will not be able to distinguish between old and new. This means that the hoarding will migrate to tangible assets, shares, gold, silver, and antiquities.

Are folks putting scared money into the gold shares for safety? It would seem so, as the great advance in past months just might indicate a change in thinking. Gold has advanced only 20% from its recent lows while the shares are up many times more versus the metal's achievement.

The shares are not yet into a major bull market but recent technical bullish preparations appear to be getting it ready to do so. Of course, when this takes place is another question.
 By Hans Kummerow

05/23/2016  12:11AM

If governments become as desperate as Bluejay expects they will, it may be wise to reread Presidential Order 6102 signed by President Roosevelt in 1933.

Read the wording on the Internet and decide afterwords whether you want to own gold bars, gold coins or plain old gold juwelry.
 By bluejay

05/22/2016  7:57AM

A Growing Case For Gold and Gold Related Companies

Posted May 21, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Rock Hard Place

The Fed is between a rock and a hard place and is trying to be that little flower that sees the light. It has two choices: (1) deal with the pension crisis at home by raising rates to prevent defaults, or (2) keep rates low to save other governments in emerging markets who continue to borrow and are doomed anyhow. Then there is the question of whether the budget deficit in the USA will explode with rising rates.

The Fed has really lost control of the economy, but the mainstream still needs to figure this out. Our model goes nuts from 2018 into 2020. This is part of the peak in 2015.75. Of course, the general public does not see this yet. They should by next year and then the game will change.
Quiet-into-LightGovernments will not go quietly into the light. They will rage at every possible moment. They are moving toward electronic money since their solution is to force everyone to pay whatever tax they demand. On January 1, 2017, G20 will begin sharing info on everyone. Compliance in business will cost tens of billions of dollars alone. Even companies who do not have foreign clients will have to confirm they do not.

Naturally, governments will act in the most stupid manner for they will not reform. Even if they grab everything, it would not be enough to save them. So be prepared. They will get very punitive. Expect crazy laws to benefit them like constitutional amendments. They will find whatever excuse to confiscate assets; mere suspicion will become proof and it will be your burden to prove innocence.

The old guard is near death. People like John McCain and Barbara Boxer, who was shut down in California, are out the door. We are looking at new people coming to power — the changing of the guard. In this respect, Trump is part of the new and Hillary is the old world of corrupt politics. We are turning the corner. Those in government remain clueless.

What survives is always tangible assets be it land, industry, shares, or something of value like gold, silver, antiques, etc. Whatever currency we use is only a medium of exchange between tangible assets. Currency is not “money,” it never holds its value, and by no means is it a store of wealth. It is just a medium of exchange like a language. So whatever we end up with, which I believe there will be some basket of currencies, will become the new medium of exchange through which everything else if measured.
 By bluejay

05/20/2016  5:31PM


In September last year Barrick was below $6, now it's risen to just under $18 after its recent failure at $20. Now we hear Soros likes gold and especially Barrick? Where were these comments when the stock was below $10? My bet is that Soros has been a seller of the shares for a trade or was acquiring put options to protect his position,

I learned the hard way that agreeing with possible planted media releases here and there is not always a good thing.

Check out the NUGT Index that trades freely as representative of the major golds. It is my opinion that as long as it is below 100 the chances of Soros making money on Barrick over the short term are not appealing.

As long as gold remains under $1320, I sense its last move's momentum may have come to an end. Things are just not looking good for the precious metals at the moment. These moves go back and forth within major trends, The important aspect of gold's future is it continues to be in a major bull market going into 13 years now. No matter how scary declines may be, and especially that drop from from $1900, it will always be in the favor of the steadied nerved folks to scale down buying when these movements take place.

05/19/2016  10:00PM

Someone is confident in gold's future:

Billionaire Soros scoops up $264 million stake in world’s largest gold miner

Fund now owns a 1.7% stake in Canada's Barrick Gold.
 By Michael Miller

05/19/2016  8:07PM

Someone asked me today about the drop in price of gold spot. Pundits say: weaker oil and metal prices put pressure on commodities; concern that US interest rates would be raised; china growth and economy; stronger dollar; violence in Africa; declining interest in stock market. On and on it goes.

Blabber about gold price usually comes from people wishing an increase or people wishing a fall in the price.

What I took from the “big” drop today only means to me that people are manipulating it instead of leaving gold alone. The best person on this web site for understanding or at least familiar with charts and trends is BLUEJAY. Because I am in the gold producing business the spot price interests me; however at the same time it means very little in how I behave. We sell gold when we have it and need dollars. Pretty simple, isn’t it! There were more sellers than buyers to explain yesterday's decline.
 By Michael Miller

01/03/2016  12:44PM

Nicely stated, Bluejay. If this is the gold bear market, I am very pleased with gold over $1,000 an ounce.

One thing you may know but have not touched is the fact that there are less small gold companies in business than during the last bull market. Supply and demand never leave an economic analysis.
 By bluejay

01/03/2016  9:51AM

I believe we must focus on the facts that the dollar has been rising and gold has been falling. No one knows with certainty when these established trends might change, folks can only guess.

In sizing up suspected trend changes one must understand the resource of their past failures and be able to apply that knowledge. The gold newsletter writers travel on a one war street for the most part and never seem to learn. Beware of these people.

Although as irresponsible as they may have been, costing some investors a great deal of their wealth, these morons stand the chance of being right in a short period of time ahead, just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, if they're still around.

IMO, we are entering an approaching phase transition where a flash crash in the general averages could develop(with much higher all-time highs to follow) along with the gold shares following suit in preparation for their final lows(some have already bottomed) while driving the last remaining sheep over the cliff. This, IMO, will be the long awaited beginning of the next intermediate uptrend within Gold's Current Long Term Bull Market.

Am I dreaming? "Time and Tide waits for no man." Our power is dry and the finger is on the trigger.
 By bluejay

01/03/2016  9:31AM

I believe we must focus on the facts that the dollar has been rising and gold has been falling. No one knows with certainty when these established trends might change, folks can only guess.

In sizing up suspected trend changes one must understand the resource of their past failures and be able to apply that knowledge. The gold newsletter writers travel on a one war street for the most part and never seem to learn. Beware of these people.

Although as irresponsible as they may have been, costing some investors a great deal of their wealth, these morons stand the chance of being right just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, if they're still around.
 By Michael Miller

12/29/2015  3:28PM

Gold Investing has many news publications. Some are really good and beneficial. Many are poor and beneficial for different reasons. Most encourage the purchase of gold or stocks. I have been reading them since I entered this industry in 1974. At that time the best information came from South Africa. Once the United States government lifted the price controls and ownership restrictions on gold, the domestic gold advisers and newsletters grew like weeds in the Spring. I continue my interest in gold information. The junior mining market has a very small following. There are fewer survivors left mining and most are without production than years ago. Most are touting how the permit process is favorably moving along. A minority are drilling and touting interesting numbers without any explanation about how it will turn the gold potential in the ground into money let alone profitable money. This is not new. It has existed for forty years. It is also not just in the gold industry.

The following information came across my email today. These are from Presidents and Directors in the junior company class. I’ll summarize for you.

The year is nearly over, and at this point it’s no secret that 2015 hasn’t been great for the gold price. While it nearly breached the $1,300-per-ounce mark in January, by midway through December it was down about 10 percent year-to-date.

Despite the current weakness in gold and other metals, I expect gold, and silver in particular, will rebound by mid-year 2016, with investor sentiment following, first into the major producers and trickling down to the juniors. By the end of 2016 I anticipate a much stronger market if for no other reason than there will likely be far fewer junior companies remaining.

2016 looks like it could be another difficult year for the gold market. The main issue continues to be the strength in the US dollar, and any weakness there would certainly be positive for gold. Some encouraging signs do exist as overall demand for metals continues to be healthy and producers have made strides reducing costs. Also, we have seen some of the required mergers and a reduction in the overall number of companies. In general, I see the gold market staying the same for much of the year with some modest recovery from the current level.

The early part of the year should be optimistic as usual, with gold and credible, quality miners (producers) seeing a good lift after tax loss season. The market should continue to improve for miners since so many companies have gone under or delisted, lessening the pool of potential investment choices for investors pulling money out from the overvalued broad markets

Investors need to focus on companies working on appropriate deposits, and investors and analysts need to be aware that “losing it on grade, but making it up on volume” never did and never will work. The ultra-large, high-capex, low-grade deposits and analysts that sold these to the public are as much to blame for the massive losses in the markets and the current investor sentiment.

I think it is very important to stress the cyclical nature of the gold market. Gold and metals prices in general will recover, and what investors need to look for are companies that are positioning themselves to benefit when the recovery starts to happen. It is very difficult to not only survive, but continue to be active under the current conditions.

Gold has always been there, through dynasties and civilizations, and continues to be a constant in our world today. With inflation kept artificially low, along with interest rates, it’s only a matter of time that faith in US dollar dissipates; we are already seeing evidence of that with China becoming a powerhouse in the world.
 By bluejay

08/03/2015  3:52PM

Post navigation← PreviousNext →
Gold: How High is High?
Posted on August 3, 2015 by Martin Armstrong


Mr. Armstrong;

Your timing has been incredible. It is becoming clear that your forecasts are time and price which are separate. You have opened my eyes to a whole new way to observing the world. Do you think gold will still reach $5,000 after 2016?

Thanks so much


ANSWER: Yes, but as I have stated before, $5,000 is the extreme maximum target – not the minimum. I do not see any possibility of $30,000 or some other outrageous forecast. Even reaching $5,000 will not be easy, and we have to be concerned that they could simply declare gold illegal as they did in 1934. Government would not necessarily travel door to door to confiscate gold. Instead, they would are likely to employ the same tactic as used the past – outlawing transactions in gold to avoid taxes, which might even include Bitcoin. That would set the stage for the confiscation of any asset that avoids taxation, a crime they now call money laundering with a sentence of up to 20 years in prison. This is all about them – not you. They will never print their way out for their benefactors would not lend them money under that scenario. Hedge funds demand Draconian measures that a deflationary, as they are doing to Puerto Rico and Argentina. They do not care that society will not function under austerity because they want their profits.

Such schemes against tax avoidance would not be merely a target against gold alone. It would be against anything taking place in a tax-exempt atmosphere. This posture would have the effect of shutting down gold futures, which would really screw the mines for they would be unable to hedge. Not to mention, if gold were illegal, who will buy the gold? So making gold illegal would result in a lot of problems. That does not put it past these people who may be trying some sort of scheme. However, this reflects the problems we face as government acts irrationally while trying to maintain control and power, rather than reform. This is the meltdown phase of governments for they cannot look at the long-term. There is no way out of this mess without a full-blown restructure, but that is a loss of power and they will never willingly do such a thing. They will kick and scream all the way.

Gold should test the $2300 level, which is about the 1980 high adjusted for inflation. That target would appear to be the minimum. That requires, of course, maintaining a free market. We will not have the precise target for a high until we achieve the final low and see the Reversals generated from that low. So anything else is speculation rather than a forecast. We still expect the low to form on the Benchmarks as of now.

Of course, the gold promoters will try to convince people that demand for physical gold will rise and that somehow will save the day. This is more of a sign that the low is not yet in place. What causes the rally from the low is its short-covering, NOT a rise in demand. Likewise, at the top, it is running out of fresh buyers who produce the high. You must exhaust the buyers to create the high and exhaust the shorts to create the low.

I still recommend REAL gold coins – not bullion bars or restrikes. Keep away from rare dates and stay with common grade U.S. $20 gold pieces or $10 and $5. You want coins that can at least be considered a collector’s item. Stay far away from high grade and rare dates. Also, be careful that the premium for newly minted gold coins, as well as silver, will rise as the price declines. This is people trying to make up for losses. Those premiums will decline at the top in prices and widen as prices decline.
 By bluejay

07/30/2015  10:40AM

Gold $1089.20 OFF $$7.70
Silver $14.73 OFF $ 0.08

Gold's 5000 day moving average is still ascending and in the vicinity of $800 plus. In my opinion. the metal remains in a bull market. The decline from above $1,900 is no more than an intermediate term scary reaction. As every day goes by, we are nearing the ultimate reaction low of this phase.

Some words from Martin Armstrong:

The Supply Side of Gold
Posted on July 30, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

A gold standard has never worked for one primary reason: the “money supply” cannot increase based upon economic conditions or politicians, rather it can increase due to new discoveries. This introduces the same flow concerned fiat money. The 19th century was plagued by the gold discoveries in California, Alaska, and Australia. Likewise, the discovery of gold in South America by the Spanish created massive inflation in Europe during the 16th century. The idea that gold provides some tangible value for money is absurd, for it has always risen and fallen in value based upon market conditions. Gold would no more provide a check against inflation than paper money. The only way to provide a stable money supply is to eliminate career politicians and stop the borrowing by government

Well, when it rains, it pours. In the Sudan, a large discovery of gold amounting to 43 tons has occurred, an amount expected to rise to 80 tons by the end of 2015, which is equivalent to a market value estimate of $2,555,262,400 if the market stays the same. The entire U.S. gold reserve is 8,000 tons. So, we are talking about a sizable discovery in the Sudan. The Sudanese government anticipates mining an additional 100 tons of gold in 2016.

From a supply-demand perspective, this could crush gold psychologically. In the long run, it will only have an impact when demand lags. It all depends upon the cost of production. When the monetary system cracks, that will be the focus. The markets will cherry-pick the news for that is always what they do.

The likelihood of the dollar collapsing is at zero right now. The crisis is manifesting in Europe first. The dollar will be driven higher as capital seeks to get off the grid and hide. The U.S. debt of $18 trillion is still a tiny fraction of the near $160 trillion in total world debt. It’s all a matter of perspective. Simply put, gold will rally ONLY when the stage is set. It will rise to the monetary crisis in the future – not right now.

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