July 20, 2017 
 Thursday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By SCOOP

05/04/2017  10:48AM

Global gold demand in Q1 2017 was 1,034.5t, 18% below the exceptional Q1 2016, which was the strongest ever first quarter. Solid inflows into ETFs were nevertheless a fraction of last year’s near-record inflows, and slower central bank demand also contributed to the year-on-year drop. Bar and coin investment, however, was healthy at 289.8t (+9% while demand firmed slightly in both the jewelry and technology sectors.

Not surprisingly, Germany and UK led EFT inflows. USA was a distant third. Much of the investment in gold bars growth came from China, where retail investment was up 30%, breaching 100t for only the fourth time on record.

Indian jewelry demand jumped 16% from last year’s exceptionally low level as market conditions improved after a very tough 2016. Pent-up demand from the closing weeks of 2016 was gradually released as liquidity improved
 By bluejay

02/07/2017  8:11AM

The gold share sector has turned around along with gold, both turning weekly bullish.
The probabilities of the current strength continuing for an unknown matter of weeks is very good.

It is suspected that when the 50 day moving average line on many gold stock charts, a technical condition known as the "kiss of death" crossed below their 200 day moving average lines many professional traders sold these shares short. Part of the strength in the sector is attributed to these folks buying back these shorted shares at a loss.

Predicting lower gold prices in lieu of the sector's strength doesn't appear at the moment to be prudent, along with gold recently turning weekly bullish. Lower gold prices, if they come, will have to wait for another day.
 By bluejay

12/29/2016  6:22AM

Hi Mike

I am to a large degree a market technician.

The current slide in the gold shares appears to be ending for the short term. In regards to gold, this is a more tricky subject. The respected Martin Armstrong is calling for a lower metal price. This would mean a continuation of the current intermediate down phase, if his opinion pans out.

I continue to see gold in a major bull market with downside possibilities to the 800 area.

I see a shift coming into the gold shares and away from the metal.

The extreme for gold on the upside now is around 3000.

At the moment, I am following Barrick Gold to support my increasing relative strength opinion for the sector.

Disclosure: I do not hold Barrick shares. Most of the families assets are in gold and silver coins and specimens.
 By Michael Miller

12/20/2016  6:23PM

HELLO BLUEJAY

Some savvy financial businessmen I know commented about the posture of the gold market in the near term. All agree that this current fall is an event in the bull market regarding price. What do you see for the current slide?

Comments include: regarding the increase buying power of the US dollar, the reality (or threat) of inflation is ignored; the price manipulators will drive the price down in order to firmly set a low before increasing gold inventor for the future bull increase.

I always fall back on what our great past director, Leland H. Erdahl, recommended as a response when asked about spot pricing. “Mike, rest assured that the following will be the truth. Tell them the price will be higher or lower, it goes up or down and that is about all one should expect.”

With this caveat in mind, how do you see the coming months?

We don’t play the gold market. We are sellers this week because bills must be paid. Oh, well. Next week, I am sure, spot will be higher or lower.
 By bluejay

10/07/2016  5:37AM

For the week

Gold $1253 off $64.10
Silver $17.34 off $1.87

The round number of 1300 on gold has been breached along with some support at the 1290 level. It looks like the metal is headed to the $1200 level. This is quite possible as the last remaining time in 2016 should be on balance, a bit negative.

When this section was named and started back in January of 2003 it was because a new major bull market in gold had begun, contrary to what you were reading in the papers, hearing on CNBC and on the nightly news. The bull market began exactly on January 23, 2003 when it crossed $352. This bull market remains in force. If for any reason it breaks $700 then, well, this major trend will have changed.

As most folks know, the trading up and down within this bull trend in gold and its related companies can be exciting and at times, scary. The current sell-off in both, overall, could last a matter of unknown weeks ahead. Looking at possible positives, it would be nice if the $1200 level on yellow metal generally held until January of next year when Martin Armstrong once mentioned that a new leg up in gold will begin. He also mentioned sometime back that he sees gold reaching $5,000 in three or four years.

Personally, I don't want to attempt to pinpoint the bottom coming up because it's a waste of time playing these games. I would rather concentrate on looking at gold related companies now, knowing they could go lower, and slowly start picking up the ones that have talented proven management with money in the till knowing this current lower move will end, hopefully followed by much higher price going forward.

I follow closely a few excellent gold sniffers up in Canada by the names of David Palmer
and Pierre Lassonde. I continue to hold all my OSTO shares and patiently wait for the next big find which, IMO, is just a matter of time. Thanks Mike for all your time and expertise in keeping the mine a going concern.
 By bluejay

08/31/2016  6:13PM

Gold $1308 Minus $2.50
Silver $18.67 Up $0.11

Gold has entered a declining phase along with silver. Next support on gold is $1290 followed by $1200. The gold shares have as well been weak.

It appears the precious metals will remain challenged going into the weeks ahead,
 By bluejay

07/14/2016  2:38AM

Gold $1343.30 UP $9.60

Following the British vote to exit the EU, gold advanced smartly. Since then it has been backing and filling with a lower bias.

Expecting a lower metal price, BREXIT changed everything for the time being. Currently, gold is positive while it remains
above its 1000 day at $1306.06.

There is no question what pushed gold higher and sustained the advancing metal related shares was money exiting western Europe. This trend continues, especially in the U.S. replica watches stock market. Although more funds will eventually head our way, a question remains, is this spurt near to ending
 By SCOOP

06/29/2016  7:53PM

Soros and many big players know it is faster and easier to make an investment paper deflate (go down) than increase in value (go up).
Short selling for manipulators is a money maker.
 By bluejay

06/29/2016  3:33AM

A follow up on what George Soros was doing marketwise several weeks back:

Today's comments from Martin Armstrong,

"No professional trader tells people what he will do in advance. Those announcements were made AFTER Soros took a position. I believe they were stories to create his exit. You get people rushing in who think they are joining him when they are being used for the exit.

George Soros is reported by Bloomberg to have been on the wrong side for he was long in the pound before Britain’s vote to leave the European Union on Friday. That means he probably sold the gold positions and used that hype as the exit. He clearly assumed BREXIT would not happen. However, Soros is generally a bear in world stock markets and this is the majority of the crowd. Soros also donated $8 million to Hillary along with the worst of the worst from Wall Street."
 By bluejay

05/30/2016  3:05AM

Gold $1215,30 off $4.50
Silver $16.25 off $0.09

Will gold sell off more, contrary to Soros's positive outlook for it and on Barrick Gold?

The analyst Martin Armstrong and his computer Socrates relating to past bearish
intermediate calls on the metal from above $1,900, appear to think so.

His Friday's comments are certainly not bullish over the short term for gold:

It might appear that Soros' bullish stance on gold and possibly Barrick Gold could be premature.

Friday's comments from Martin Armstrong might indicate a storm ahead for gold:

"The markets are in turmoil. Gold has plunged again trading down trying to flirt with 1206. If we close below 1206 today, then get prepared for a test of 1174 which is the next Monthly Bearish beyond 1240. If we get this signal today, it begins to look like we will break 1000. Failing to exceed last year’s high keeps it on track where we have the potential for the low in 2016. Looks like we will shake the diehards out of the tree."

This is only for the short term, the long term is a different story. Mr. Armstrong expects gold to reach $5,000 an ounce starting when gold finally hits its bottom. The big question is, has gold bottomed already or will it be bottoming lower? It would not surprise me if gold does make a lower low but without new lows in the gold related companies. Only time will tell.
 By Hans Kummerow

05/24/2016  11:53PM

Talking about safe deposit boxes:

After the gold seizure order of 1933 IRS sealed safe deposit boxes nationwide. And of course the owners of the boxes were on record at the banks.

And of course the banks, who were controlling the access to the boxes, were held responsible that no seal was broken - except in the presence of an IRS-Representative.

That is a lesson from history too that is worthy of being remembered.
 By bluejay

05/24/2016  4:36AM

Hans

Your reference to history seems quite in order. Thank you for your submission.

Yes, when it comes to government being pushed into a financial corner anything is possible. Roosevelt was a coin collector. If history repeats itself it may be OK to hold collection coins more than bars and the bullion coins and the bullion jewelry. Government appears certainly moving in that direction as holding gold in safety deposits boxes is now considered money laundering by them.

Here are some of today's comments by Martin Armstrong:

When you introduce a collapse in confidence in government, people no longer “feel” secure and they hoard even the based currency. This is why we find so many hoards of debased Roman currency during the chaotic 3rd century.

It is a curious paradox. Right now people are hoarding, as are the banks and corporations. It is hard to hoard paper currency for you will not be able to distinguish between old and new. This means that the hoarding will migrate to tangible assets, shares, gold, silver, and antiquities.

Are folks putting scared money into the gold shares for safety? It would seem so, as the great advance in past months just might indicate a change in thinking. Gold has advanced only 20% from its recent lows while the shares are up many times more versus the metal's achievement.

The shares are not yet into a major bull market but recent technical bullish preparations appear to be getting it ready to do so. Of course, when this takes place is another question.
 By Hans Kummerow

05/23/2016  12:11AM

If governments become as desperate as Bluejay expects they will, it may be wise to reread Presidential Order 6102 signed by President Roosevelt in 1933.

Read the wording on the Internet and decide afterwords whether you want to own gold bars, gold coins or plain old gold juwelry.
 By bluejay

05/22/2016  7:57AM

A Growing Case For Gold and Gold Related Companies

Posted May 21, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Rock Hard Place



The Fed is between a rock and a hard place and is trying to be that little flower that sees the light. It has two choices: (1) deal with the pension crisis at home by raising rates to prevent defaults, or (2) keep rates low to save other governments in emerging markets who continue to borrow and are doomed anyhow. Then there is the question of whether the budget deficit in the USA will explode with rising rates.

The Fed has really lost control of the economy, but the mainstream still needs to figure this out. Our model goes nuts from 2018 into 2020. This is part of the peak in 2015.75. Of course, the general public does not see this yet. They should by next year and then the game will change.
Quiet-into-LightGovernments will not go quietly into the light. They will rage at every possible moment. They are moving toward electronic money since their solution is to force everyone to pay whatever tax they demand. On January 1, 2017, G20 will begin sharing info on everyone. Compliance in business will cost tens of billions of dollars alone. Even companies who do not have foreign clients will have to confirm they do not.

Naturally, governments will act in the most stupid manner for they will not reform. Even if they grab everything, it would not be enough to save them. So be prepared. They will get very punitive. Expect crazy laws to benefit them like constitutional amendments. They will find whatever excuse to confiscate assets; mere suspicion will become proof and it will be your burden to prove innocence.

The old guard is near death. People like John McCain and Barbara Boxer, who was shut down in California, are out the door. We are looking at new people coming to power — the changing of the guard. In this respect, Trump is part of the new and Hillary is the old world of corrupt politics. We are turning the corner. Those in government remain clueless.

What survives is always tangible assets be it land, industry, shares, or something of value like gold, silver, antiques, etc. Whatever currency we use is only a medium of exchange between tangible assets. Currency is not “money,” it never holds its value, and by no means is it a store of wealth. It is just a medium of exchange like a language. So whatever we end up with, which I believe there will be some basket of currencies, will become the new medium of exchange through which everything else if measured.
 By bluejay

05/20/2016  5:31PM

Reap

In September last year Barrick was below $6, now it's risen to just under $18 after its recent failure at $20. Now we hear Soros likes gold and especially Barrick? Where were these comments when the stock was below $10? My bet is that Soros has been a seller of the shares for a trade or was acquiring put options to protect his position,

I learned the hard way that agreeing with possible planted media releases here and there is not always a good thing.

Check out the NUGT Index that trades freely as representative of the major golds. It is my opinion that as long as it is below 100 the chances of Soros making money on Barrick over the short term are not appealing.

As long as gold remains under $1320, I sense its last move's momentum may have come to an end. Things are just not looking good for the precious metals at the moment. These moves go back and forth within major trends, The important aspect of gold's future is it continues to be in a major bull market going into 13 years now. No matter how scary declines may be, and especially that drop from from $1900, it will always be in the favor of the steadied nerved folks to scale down buying when these movements take place.
 By REAP

05/19/2016  10:00PM

Someone is confident in gold's future:

Billionaire Soros scoops up $264 million stake in world’s largest gold miner

Fund now owns a 1.7% stake in Canada's Barrick Gold.
 By Michael Miller

05/19/2016  8:07PM

Someone asked me today about the drop in price of gold spot. Pundits say: weaker oil and metal prices put pressure on commodities; concern that US interest rates would be raised; china growth and economy; stronger dollar; violence in Africa; declining interest in stock market. On and on it goes.

Blabber about gold price usually comes from people wishing an increase or people wishing a fall in the price.

What I took from the “big” drop today only means to me that people are manipulating it instead of leaving gold alone. The best person on this web site for understanding or at least familiar with charts and trends is BLUEJAY. Because I am in the gold producing business the spot price interests me; however at the same time it means very little in how I behave. We sell gold when we have it and need dollars. Pretty simple, isn’t it! There were more sellers than buyers to explain yesterday's decline.
 By Michael Miller

01/03/2016  12:44PM

Nicely stated, Bluejay. If this is the gold bear market, I am very pleased with gold over $1,000 an ounce.

One thing you may know but have not touched is the fact that there are less small gold companies in business than during the last bull market. Supply and demand never leave an economic analysis.
 By bluejay

01/03/2016  9:51AM

I believe we must focus on the facts that the dollar has been rising and gold has been falling. No one knows with certainty when these established trends might change, folks can only guess.

In sizing up suspected trend changes one must understand the resource of their past failures and be able to apply that knowledge. The gold newsletter writers travel on a one war street for the most part and never seem to learn. Beware of these people.

Although as irresponsible as they may have been, costing some investors a great deal of their wealth, these morons stand the chance of being right in a short period of time ahead, just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, if they're still around.

IMO, we are entering an approaching phase transition where a flash crash in the general averages could develop(with much higher all-time highs to follow) along with the gold shares following suit in preparation for their final lows(some have already bottomed) while driving the last remaining sheep over the cliff. This, IMO, will be the long awaited beginning of the next intermediate uptrend within Gold's Current Long Term Bull Market.

Am I dreaming? "Time and Tide waits for no man." Our power is dry and the finger is on the trigger.
 By bluejay

01/03/2016  9:31AM

I believe we must focus on the facts that the dollar has been rising and gold has been falling. No one knows with certainty when these established trends might change, folks can only guess.

In sizing up suspected trend changes one must understand the resource of their past failures and be able to apply that knowledge. The gold newsletter writers travel on a one war street for the most part and never seem to learn. Beware of these people.

Although as irresponsible as they may have been, costing some investors a great deal of their wealth, these morons stand the chance of being right just like a stopped clock is right twice a day, if they're still around.

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